Well we’ve made it 2019 and its time to talk about what I see
business wise for the upcoming months. Overall I am taking a positive outlook, I am
hopeful that 2019 features a more even keeled performance than 2018. For many last year was a tale of two seasons-
the first half not great, followed by a strong finish. This year should have a more consistent
performance and be a year with a slight amount of growth. Backlogs are filled at the glazing contractor
side and the metrics I follow for 2019 are all looking up. The big worry is what’s coming in 2020. That’s where there’s some concern. Normally at this point in the cycle you can
start to see what is heading our way and the initial view does show some choppy
waters. Residential and auto futures are
looking softer for 2020 and that is usually a signal that commercial weakening
could follow right behind. If that is the case, we could see an uneven
2020. I will note that it is still very
far off and things can and do change quickly- but for now, I have a little
pessimism in my bones for 2020, but I’ll keep monitoring and updating
here. Over the next few weeks I am going
to do my prediction review from last year and offer my new ones for 2019… so
stay tuned with more to come.
Oh and no matter what the predictions or markets say please
check out Katy Devlin’s blog on “How to Recession-proof Your Business.” Tremendously helpful piece.
Elsewhere…
-- As an add to the above the last Architectural Billings Index
was a monster, finishing up at 54.7, which was a nice gain over the previous
month and the barely breaking even score of 50.4. However I have a feeling though that the next
release on 1/23 will be the first one in the last 14 months under the break
even number. We’ll see…
-- Glass Magazine review time… December issue with the team
from Steel Encounters on the cover moving glass. The issue was dedicated to handling equipment
so those articles were fascinating to me- so much advancement in that
area. Also I love any time my pal Joe
Schiavone of CR Laurence writes and he has a great piece in there co-written
with Brian Stratton of Linetec. Well
done! Also check out Bryan Bush’s
backlog calculator article- extremely informative.
-- Ad of the month was a tough one again… good mix of ads from
handling folks along with others trying to get their messages across. My winner for this month is Midwest Wholesale
Hardware. I liked the bold approach with
the font, use of color and layout.
Congrats to the folks there on this smart approach!
-- During the holidays I saw a lot of ads for Mirror.co, which
is a fitness application, built into a wall mirror…. Found that very
interesting. Anyone else see it- anyone
have one of these yet? TV makes it looks
very easy and makes the mirror look good- who knows this could drive more
mirror business some day…
-- Design Build and Project Management… good article here on
the process involved.
-- Last this week… just a sincere thank you from my entire
family for the thoughts and prayers shared to us upon the passing of our
mother, Ettie Perilstein. It was a
tough week but the support shown by so many of our friends in this great
industry truly was meaningful and greatly appreciated. Thank you.
LINKS of the WEEK
Wow- a parrot goes to town with ordering from Alexa!
This would freak me out big time… the cat or doggie door can
surely allow others in…
More Florida stories and with both my kids living there in
2019, I’ll really have to pay more attention…
VIDEO of the WEEK
There was a list on YouTube- the top 10 most anticipated
movies for 2019. And stunningly
“Rocketman” which is a biopic about Elton John was NOT on there… I can’t wait
to see it and will be curious to see if it is better than “Bohemian
Rhapsody.” Here’s the preview…
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