Almost Right

So the latest Architectural Billings Index came out and I was almost correct with my prediction of it being under water this month.  The ABI came in at 50.4, which is barely beating the break even 50 mark.  I knew softening was coming, just not as much as I thought.  The analysts pointed to the tariff issue, the US Government shutdown, and a feel for an unstable business landscape as the reasons why.  So now the watch continues into next month- the overall attitude in the field has been on the positive end, but there is a bit of malaise to start the year.  There was solid news in that the project inquiry number stayed robust at 55- so that is good.  In any case I am not at all surprised about the main number but I am pleased to be wrong in this case- no matter how small the margin is on the plus side, I am glad to take it!

By the way with all of the forecasts in… AIA’s “consensus” forecast for 2019 non residential construction is a 4.4% gain.  For many that is not impressive or meaty enough, for me I can’t see how you could complain about positive growth…

Elsewhere…

--  Annual Conference looked to be a major hit- I heard from many that said the keynote was incredibly interesting.  I hated missing it.  Lisa Rammig, of Eckersley O'Callaghan & Partners gave the talk about glass and trends and according to this tweet from my friend Andrew Haring- it was pretty awesome but still scratching the surface:

"Despite dropping jaws with transparent IGU’s, flexible thin glass vent windows, 3D printed shading integrated directly into an IG unit, and a freaking all-glass slide (!!!)... she claims “we’re not where we want to be.” Fantastic presentation!"

Despite dropping jaws with transparent IGU’s, flexible thin glass vent windows, 3D printed shading integrated directly into an IG unit, and a freaking all-glass slide (!!!)... she claims “we’re not where we want to be.” Fantastic presentation!

— Andrew Haring (@andrewharing) January 23, 2019

I surely hated missing it… 

--  Have you noticed there’s surely a lot of airport remodeling/rebuilding going on and the nice thing is the amount of glass being used is awesome.  Last week the drawings for the update to O’Hare in Chicago came out and they all look to really want to take full advantage of the greatness of the glazing!

Scary story about constructions cranes being hacked.  That will be one of the worries with how connected our world is these days and will be even more in the future.

I ran across some interesting numbers last week with regards to website effectiveness.  84% of industry/architectural buyers will check out a companies website before doing business with them.  So when I am on here complimenting folks on their new sites etc. that is a big reason why… it matters.  So that said kudos to Heather Monroe at Machines and Wheels on the re-launch of their site.  Tremendous work- site is smartly done and easy to navigate.  Great work to Heather and her team!

Last this week… back to the Annual Conference and the news that Julie Schimmelpenningh was named as the 2018 winner of the C. Gregory Carney Member of the Year Award.  Julie is flat out awesome.  She so deserves the recognition and I am thrilled she was honored with this amazing award.  Also knowing that our friend, the late Mr. Carney, would be so pleased that Julie was selected makes the day for me.  Congrats Julie!

LINKS of the WEEK

A VERY creative way to remove snow…. Better than shoveling right?

Wow the Weinermobile in an accident… worthless trivia when I had client in Memphis, the Weinermobile used to be parked in the lot of the hotel I always stayed at…

Sorry- no way can a Gator be an emotional support animal! 

VIDEO of the WEEK

Always awesome when a performer pulls a kid on stage and the kid comes through with an epic performance… here’s one from a Foo Fighters concert.  On a side note I wish I could play an instrument… love music, no skills whatsoever to play it!

Predictions for 2019

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Time for my fearless predictions for 2019…

1.     I may as well get this one out of the way early… Security Glass will continue to grow in 2019.  Yes it’s on my list every year but I am still convinced additional growth is on the horizon.  School security is priority like never before.  More and more private businesses are upgrading and government and municipal are pretty much locked in with desires to go heavier on security. 

2.     Look at Lifting.  The days of glaziers trying to use old fashioned muscle to install and move glass are dying.  The days of installers having to share various equipment to glaze are also coming to an end.  Like never before lifting apparatus is everywhere and its advanced amazingly over the years.  Just visit GlassBuild and be in awe.  I am a big fan of this sector and its importance to our industry.

3.     Speaking of important- the Robot Revolution is here. I predict the usage of robots and automation at the fabricator level will jump quite a bit as the year ends and many fabricators will enter 2020 with a new look and approach to production.  Included is this are terms like IoT and Internet 4.0.  Get ready; innovation is coming fast and furious.

4.     Deals are not done.  Many companies who are thinking about selling are staring into the future and thinking- “this needs to be the year I sell” because we really don’t know what 2020 is going to bring from an economic side.  I see a bunch of smaller deals but we’ve got a doozy or two coming our way and the rumors are absolutely wild.

5.     Talent on the move.  I think there’s a ton of talent in our industry and I have a feeling that we are going to see some of the best folks we have transitioning either into promotions at their current company or moving on to new ones. Any business owner who’s looking to take a leading position going forward has to be looking at making a run at some of the talent out there.

So we will see how these come out… I am always curious on what my dear readers think so feel free to reach out to me and share!  Would love to have the conversation…

Elsewhere…

--  One of my favorite things each year is when it’s announced that the employees of Viracon donated a huge sum to charity.  Once again they’ve blown me away.  It was announced last week that the incredible team at there donated $116,000 to the United Way.  Kudos to everyone at Viracon and special props to Carla Kern who heads this effort up every year.  Awesome stuff!!

--  The deal on the Project Managers Reference Manual for members of NGA is an absolute steal.  Must buy.  And if you are not a member of NGA, you should join to take advantage of things like this!  For more info…

--  Additional note on Project Managers… I am honored to head up a panel at BEC in March on training of Project Managers.  We have 2 incredible industry brains on the panel in Brian Fillipiak of Alliance Glazing and Paul Robinson of Pioneer Glazing, as well as Neil Opfer, a professor in the construction school at the University of Nevada Las Vegas.  All I can say is in my initial talks with these guys; it’s been an incredible learning experience on their best practices and ideas to keep improving our world.  I think I may just moderate by introducing them and then sitting back and watching them go.   Get registered for BEC today!

--  Great cartoon given to me by my friend Scott Goodman… really sums up our world sometimes:

 

--  Last this week… for those of you going to the Annual Conference- I sincerely hope to see you there.  My schedule is pretty messy so I may not be there for long or at all depending on how things break.  I am bummed because this will be one the best conferences ever… enjoy and I look forward to hearing about all of the details.

LINKS of the WEEK

The headline is a winner all by itself.

Great headline #2

Simply incredible way to lose weight!

VIDEO of the WEEK

Skipping VIDEO of the WEEK this post… we’ll hopefully return next week!

2018 Prediction Results

So before we can really look into 2019, time to take a look back at 2018.  Did my predictions come close or did I fail like I do when I try to pick winners in sporting events… let’s take a look.

1.     Trucking will be a bigger challenge:  Well I believe it was tough… but was it a bigger challenge and did the DOT rules change anything?  I am not sure. I know it’s a constant battle but not sure it cratered the way I thought.

2.     Going Big- I felt the sophisticated glazing would be in style and in 2018 it was.  No matter how challenging the project it could be done and there were multiple avenues to get it done.

3.     Security Glass goes wild- I had this in 2017.  I had it in 2018.  Believe me I am putting on the list next week for 2019.  It was a better year for security glass especially in the school segment.  Sadly the need is there.

4.     Private Equity in and out- I thought we’d have some exits along with new players.  No exits but plenty of new and aggressive PE’s are on the scene now.  So ½ right here.

5.     NGA and GANA merge and be great in the end- The merge formalized and slowly but surely the unified voice is really finding its footing.  This was a massive undertaking and I am still extremely confident that it’s going to be a great thing.  So far so good with streamlined efforts in place and this will only continue to evolve and improve.

So I was not too far off overall… better than my pick for the Super Bowl this year… the Carolina Panthers.  Oops.  Anyway next week we’ll have my predictions on 2019….

Elsewhere…

--  I had a lot of reaction to my overall economic look for this year and into 2020.  Most of the reaction was that the positive indicators are outweighing the negative.  So that was very good to hear.  We’ll keep on it.  Still I think we’re going to see a dip in the next ABI and I’ll be then curious to see a trend develops.

--  NGA Annual Conference is coming up fast!  Have you looked at it or made arrangements yet?  The keynote speech by Lisa Rammig is an absolute must see. Staying ahead of codes, guidelines, and the technical movements in our world is crucial too.  Click the link and be there!

--  I came across an older article about trends in smart hotels and there’s some specific areas that effect our world- specifically the modular building (which I have noted many times)  It will be fascinating to see how that and some of these other trends take off…

--  Last this week… this story on the pay comparison betweenbeing an architect and managing a fast food joint was noteworthy.  I am sure many in the architectural profession were not happy with the comparison, as they believe themselves to be beyond fast food management.  Still it also shows that it’s a competitive world out there for talent and some jobs do pay quite a bit more than you think.

LINKS of the WEEK

--  Kind of an interesting story on some High School happenings between Principal and Officer.  Sadly the story leaves out a major question… but then again it’s the USA Today which has woefully become an absolute joke of a newspaper.

--  I love stories like this when good wins out over evil.

--  This is what our world has come to….

VIDEO of the WEEK

BUT....There are good people in this world.  This video shows it… people banding together to save someone in serious peril.

Kicking Off 2019

Well we’ve made it 2019 and its time to talk about what I see business wise for the upcoming months.    Overall I am taking a positive outlook, I am hopeful that 2019 features a more even keeled performance than 2018.  For many last year was a tale of two seasons- the first half not great, followed by a strong finish.  This year should have a more consistent performance and be a year with a slight amount of growth.  Backlogs are filled at the glazing contractor side and the metrics I follow for 2019 are all looking up.  The big worry is what’s coming in 2020.  That’s where there’s some concern.  Normally at this point in the cycle you can start to see what is heading our way and the initial view does show some choppy waters.  Residential and auto futures are looking softer for 2020 and that is usually a signal that commercial weakening could follow right behind. If that is the case, we could see an uneven 2020.   I will note that it is still very far off and things can and do change quickly- but for now, I have a little pessimism in my bones for 2020, but I’ll keep monitoring and updating here.  Over the next few weeks I am going to do my prediction review from last year and offer my new ones for 2019… so stay tuned with more to come. 

Oh and no matter what the predictions or markets say please check out Katy Devlin’s blog on “How to Recession-proof Your Business.”  Tremendously helpful piece. 

Elsewhere…

--  As an add to the above the last Architectural Billings Index was a monster, finishing up at 54.7, which was a nice gain over the previous month and the barely breaking even score of 50.4.  However I have a feeling though that the next release on 1/23 will be the first one in the last 14 months under the break even number.  We’ll see…

--  Glass Magazine review time… December issue with the team from Steel Encounters on the cover moving glass.  The issue was dedicated to handling equipment so those articles were fascinating to me- so much advancement in that area.  Also I love any time my pal Joe Schiavone of CR Laurence writes and he has a great piece in there co-written with Brian Stratton of Linetec.  Well done!  Also check out Bryan Bush’s backlog calculator article- extremely informative.

--  Ad of the month was a tough one again… good mix of ads from handling folks along with others trying to get their messages across.  My winner for this month is Midwest Wholesale Hardware.  I liked the bold approach with the font, use of color and layout.  Congrats to the folks there on this smart approach!

--  During the holidays I saw a lot of ads for Mirror.co, which is a fitness application, built into a wall mirror…. Found that very interesting.  Anyone else see it- anyone have one of these yet?  TV makes it looks very easy and makes the mirror look good- who knows this could drive more mirror business some day…

--  Design Build and Project Management… good article here on the process involved.

--  Last this week… just a sincere thank you from my entire family for the thoughts and prayers shared to us upon the passing of our mother, Ettie Perilstein.   It was a tough week but the support shown by so many of our friends in this great industry truly was meaningful and greatly appreciated.  Thank you.

LINKS of the WEEK

Wow- a parrot goes to town with ordering from Alexa!

This would freak me out big time… the cat or doggie door can surely allow others in…

More Florida stories and with both my kids living there in 2019, I’ll really have to pay more attention…

VIDEO of the WEEK

There was a list on YouTube- the top 10 most anticipated movies for 2019.  And stunningly “Rocketman” which is a biopic about Elton John was NOT on there… I can’t wait to see it and will be curious to see if it is better than “Bohemian Rhapsody.”  Here’s the preview…