Forecast and Other Insights

The newest episode of the From the Fabricator podcast is now up!  This time out we’ve got 2 making their return to the airwaves with great insight and info.  Kicking it off for the 3^rd year in a row- a forecast session with Nick St. Denis of KMR.  Nick does a tremendous job, has great offerings overall, and we spend most of the cast talking the various ups and downs in our space and where the optimism stands. Really helpful stuff.  Then Tim Widner from Lippert joins me for a rollicking run through our world, new products and tech, resiliency, and focus. Tim has done it all and seen it all and it is always fun to get his perspective on our world.  So please check it out! Thank you again for the support!

VIDEO

AUDIO (And search “From the Fabricator” on Apple, Spotify, Google or wherever you listen to podcasts!)

 

Elsewhere…

--  One area Nick and I talked about was the hotel and recreation space and that area continues to roll along. Nick had it pegged that things are promising there, and this column backs it up with a big number of projects in the works.  Good to see.

 

--  On the flip side and as expected, the latest Architectural Billings Index showed a below water number again, staying basically flat from last month with a 45.4.  The positive side was the design contract number jumped to the break-even of 50 and the inquiries stayed alive at 53.1. The down main number is not a surprise but nice to see the others hanging in there. Again the thought was these negative numbers would run through 1Q and start to rebound so that has been the case to date.  We’ll continue to monitor!

 

--  Big news out of Apogee this week with the restructuring of their Architectural Framing division.  Not all completely clear to me but at least what was shown publicly was the Tubelite plant in Michigan will close and other work is going to be consolidated.  And there is word out there that brands will be combined, and certain long-term company names may be going away.  No doubt this will have a trickle-down effect on how people work and the availability of talent that may have gotten caught up in the downsizing.  Given this talent is coming from an industry leader like Apogee I don’t expect anyone to be without work for long.  Bottom line though is Apogee saw an area to streamline and improve and went after it- and with that comes those tough calls on people and brands. But I do always preach on here about really working your business and they are doing just that.  I would assume with the high-end way they communicate things will become clearer on what’s what soon enough. 

 

--  The annual Movers Study for 2023 came out and I am shocked at the results…. 

This was done by United Van Lines for the 47^th Year.

Top Inbound states?

Vermont

Washington, D.C.

South Carolina

Arkansas

Rhode Island

North Carolina

South Dakota

Alabama

New Mexico

West Virginia

 

Honestly- DC floored me.  I guess working for the US Government is a big deal?  Also shocked- no Florida or Texas on this list.  

 

The top outbound states for 2023 were:

New Jersey

Illinois

North Dakota

New York

Michigan

California

Massachusetts

Kansas

 

Interesting on the outbound was North Dakota.  Surely doesn’t fit with the others and I really thought Oregon would be on here. (I know I always pick on Oregon)  Anyway love these lists and find it fascinating to follow….

 

--  You keep hearing and seeing more on embodied carbon so it was refreshing to see brilliant industry folks like Ricardo Maiz, Martin Bracamonte, and Rob Struble at it again with Vitro’s release of their new Emissions Carbon and Energy Calculator.  Really sharp stuff and kicks off with a well-done step by step video.  Kudos to all at Vitro who had a hand in this- good info!!

 

--  Last this week…. So the Super Bowl is coming up… and it’s been a contentious one for me.  At the beginning of the season I picked KC to win it.  But when I had a chance for re-do I went with the Ravens.  Ouch.  So, I am hoping KC does it because maybe I can count it as a ½ win?  (And they should win because Mahomes is amazing)  But full win and credit should go to the great Junaid Saleem of CSG Global Talent Experts.   He’s been on the KC train all the way! All I want now though is a good game with some great creative commercials. If the commercials fail this year, then I think we push Madison Avenue to hire Andrew Haring to produce them for next year….

 

LINKS of the WEEK

Speaking of the Chiefs- that first playoff game they played was in truly insane weather.  Wonder if changes are coming for the future?l

 

This story starts with a bonkers headline and sadly proceeds from there

 

And on the opposite- hilarious headline and comical story

 

PROJECT of the WEEK

The amazing team at Ajay Glass in New York pop into the spotlight this week with the The Student Hall for Exploration and Development (SHED) project at the Rochester Institute of Technology. Great looking building and the one picture below just doesn’t do it enough justice- so check out more HERE. Kudos to the Stathopoulos family and the entire team at Ajay for being a part of an epic job!  Those guys always make our industry look good!