Remembering Lowell and Predictions for 2015

Very packed blog this week and before I get to the news portion, a remembrance of a great man who passed over the holidays.  Lowell Rager, formerly of LOF and best known from his days at Ford and Visteon Glass passed away at the end of last month.  Lowell was absolutely one of the nicest and classiest gentlemen in our industry.  Lowell was a technical icon; he knew everything and what he did not know he learned with great ferocity.  He was, among many other things, the guy behind educating the industry on the turtle code.  The code so bizarre that many could not believe it, but Lowell knew everything there was to know about it and the glass that was needed to save turtles and other marine life.  Lowell carried himself with style, always dressed nicely, was always put together and always with a smile and solid handshake.  One of the last times I saw him was a mid summer day in Detroit, a jobsite that had the always fun “quench marks” on the glass.  Lowell deftly explained and handled the issue better than anyone I have ever seen.  He did this all while not breaking a sweat, while wearing a suit and tie, in the searing mid summer Michigan humidity.  Cool and in control.  Awesome.  No one else could pull that off.  Whenever I would compliment Lowell on here or in person, he would tell me I was “much too kind”- well I can say he deserved every compliment and then some.  The world and our industry is not as good today and in the future without Lowell.  Rest in Peace my friend.

Elsewhere…

--  No doubt the fall out from the Trulite-AGC deal dominated the industry last week.  The big item was the closure immediately of some of the facilities acquired and that was something I totally misread.  Maybe I am naïve or just plain clueless (don't answer that!) but I did not expect any facilities to close so fast. I figured some would, just not day 1.  Probably the only silver lining is the fact that those who are losing their jobs should be in major demand since qualified employees are very hard to find in our industry.  Still sad though.  And now the watch begins to see how the rest of the industry reacts to markets being consolidated. 

--  Also there was a tremendous comment (and my attempt at areply) posted on my blog on the Glass Magazine site that talked about how the industry has changed.  Great take.... worth reading and considering.

--  Last week I recapped my 2014 predictions… now time for my five fearless predictions for the glass and glazing industry for 2015. 

• 1.     Instead of one big acquisition in our industry, I am predicting several smaller ones, maybe along the lines of 5 or 6 this year.  I do think one sale will be someone who no one expected would sell.
• 2.     The “Bird Safe” revolution for glass will grow with more and more architects starting to ask for it. 
• 3.     With North America now loaded with more digital printers for glass than ever, 2015 will be the year where its usage in several industry segments takes off. 
• 4.     At least 2 major companies return to participate heavily in GlassBuild America this fall.  With the show being a premier attraction, some companies who have skipped will realize they can’t miss it again.
• 5.     The glass shortage will have an effect but the transportation issues will be even worse, items that the industry will have to be very creative and proactive to deal with.

--  Speaking of transportation issues- this is another angle of what we are up against.  From the Detroit Free Press on January 4^th  

For example, a nationwide shortage of truck drivers recently forced Ann Arbor Township-based shipping company Con-way Freight to launch its own driver school. The firm provides 12 weeks of training at no cost for prospective drivers, who spend half of that time earning compensation for dock work until they receive their certification.

Con-way expects to train and hire 50 Michigan-based truck drivers in 2015 — all of whom return to their homes at night, unlike long-haul drivers — and about 1,600 nationwide. The company gave a "significant" raise to its current drivers in June and plans to deliver another one in January, said Con-way Freight President Greg Lehmkuhl.

"More than anything else in the next few years, it's a war for qualified and safe drivers," Lehmkuhl said. "The whole industry is raising wages to attract people into the driving profession."

So glass haulers, already short on qualified people now have to take on nimble companies looking to control the game themselves.  Not to mention fabricators who need drivers or need to keep them face the same pressures.  This is a tough one folks. 

--  Last this week… a crazy one.  I am pretty much a protectionist when it comes to North America, so what to do when the US and Canada get in a fight over building material supply?  This one is a bizarre one involving steel, who makes it and where it goes.  Reading it makes me feel like kid between divorcing parents.  Make sure you scan some of the comments too, some wild takes there.  Anyway let’s hope diplomacy, compromise and logic take hold here instead of backbiting.

LINKS of the WEEK

-- Fellow road warriors… what would you do?  Fly or not?  Me?  I fly.  No worries.

--  This guy just lost it basically.  Better to leave things be when you hit the media then kick the nest.

--  Deer attacks man.  Yep revenge!

VIDEO of the WEEK

The movie Taken 3 is now out…  and the star of the movie (Liam Neeson) played a practical joke on his co-stars ex boy friend.  No way would I want to mess with Liam!

The Deal is Done- Finally.

2015 is off and running….   But before the calendar turned, the deal that I hinted to finally came to life.  The purchase of the AGC fabrication locations in the US by Trulite is a big deal.  Whenever you have one large operation buying another there’s going to be disruption in the marketplace.  For both organizations, in my opinion, there are positives out of the gate.  For AGC on the float side, this allows them to focus their efforts on their core competency of float manufacturing and coating.  For Trulite, this gives them more critical mass both in locations and talent.  As for the industry it’s another major consolidation to deal with and some of the fallout that comes with it.  That fallout will possibly/probably include reactions from other companies looking to keep pace or fill territorial holes and that process surely won’t be a dull one to watch.  In the end, deals this size will be judged a year from now when integration is complete and all of the parts and pieces are where Trulite wants them to be. Until then we’ll be watching the ripples and also keeping mind of a few other deals that are percolating out there.  A new year is underway and it's going to be fun....

Elsewhere…

--  Funniest part for me of the above deal and my reporting of it?  It was how many folks wrote me after it came out if “this was the deal” I was talking about.  I was tempted to say no… something bigger is coming just to keep that momentum going….

--  So on my first blog, last year, I made predictions for the year…. How did I do?   Here they are with my comments in italics. 

1. There will be one major acquisition in the glass fabrication side of the business that will have the industry buzzing.  Otherwise 2014 will be light on the merger/acquisition side but look out 2015 will be crazy with them.  – It took until the last days of 2014 but I got this one right!!

2.     Both GANA BEC and GlassBuild America will be hugely successful.  And yes I have worked or do work with both of these so consider my bias, but I will say both are primed for big years.  The BEC 2014 has a very strong agenda and I have seen the plans for GlassBuild America and I promise you that you will be impressed and WANT to be there.- Count me as 2 for 2.  Both events were fantastic and must attends, as they will be this year as well.

3.     A new green rating system will start to take hold.  Right now LEED is beyond dominant and will continue to be the major player, but look out for one of the smaller organizations breaking through. – Unfortunately despite some good efforts out there, LEED is still the monster, I am not sure anyone will knock them off soon.  This also may have been more of a wish than a prediction.

4.     The code battles will continue and I believe an unlikely ally (another industry) will join forces with the glass industry giving us a stronger voice in the proceedings. – This actually was somewhat quiet, we had the win early in the year and not much else happened.  So count this as a miss.

5.     The use of 4th surface Low E will continue to grow and become a much bigger player in the specification process. – I am seeing more of it but not as much as I thought.  Give me a ½ right here.

So final tally- 2 dead on, 2 not, and 1 almost.  Not bad.  Next week I will run my predictions for 2015…

--  Congrats to my friend, Donald Press over at Okalux North America as he continues to build a nice team there, with the latest being the addition of Peter Stattler to the team.  Peter brings even more talent (on top of everything Donald and his current team posess) to this group.  Nice move!

--  Speaking of talented friends, Ted Bleecker fits that description and he’s one to follow on twitter (@tedbleecker) for insightful and interesting links on energy and solar related matters.  Last week he linked a good one worth sharing here- the top 5 reasons 2015 will be a positive in the energy world.  Good stuff.  

--  And another interesting article I found while enjoying the holidays…  was this one on the Miami Heat suing the architect of their arena.  Some neat insight into construction over runs and egos.  

--  Last this week… my fearless and sure to be wrong choice for the Super Bowl… I’m going with the Seahawks repeating.  Yep, going the easy route of a #1 seed.  Since I like the Seahawks and their fans so much, I hate to even put them in such a jinxed position.  Though on January 5^th, 2014, I picked to Seahawks to win last years game and my stink did not stop them then. 

LINKS of the WEEK

--  Wow, this may be the most baffling, bizarre, and odd article you will read all year.  I can’t even fathom how any of this makes sense.

--  Sometimes the crazy idea for marriage proposal can go very badly.

--  If you are an internet geek, this is a cool listing of the most popular websites each year from 1996 to current.  Crazy how popular some of these sites were!!

VIDEO of the WEEK

And just like last year, I start the new year with a look back at the best news bloopers of 2014.  Some are good, some not, still overall a fun one to watch.

Wrapping up 2014

With this being my last “scheduled” blog of the year, it’s a great opportunity to look back at 2014 and review our world some.  The big take away for me is that this is the year the industry came back.  While not everyone is swamped, I would say most are experiencing their best performances in a quite a while.  That is truly a relief, as I know there were some people riding this storm out wondering if it will ever come to an end.  I sincerely believe the positive momentum will continue in 2015. 

As for the year itself… I think the most surprising story and most under reported one is pretty recent.  The crazy drop in oil prices, sending gasoline prices in the US to levels that I don’t believe anyone ever thought would happen again.  While I am stunned seeing gas prices in the mid to low 2 dollar range in some places, I can’t help but think this is temporary, but regardless that is a pretty major hole busted in the oil bubble that looked impenetrable forever. 

2014 was the year that most trade shows came roaring back.  GlassBuild America was very strong as were several other trade conferences.  It was good to see that returning as those of us who always supported knew that these were “must attend” events no matter what.  Participating in these events will be even more crucial in 2015 because we have a glass and transportation situation on our hands, so knowing the answers that only a show or a conference can provide will be extremely important.

Also there are a couple of other highlights from this year I want to quickly touch on.  We had the always-incredible Dr. Tom Culp leading the industry to a victory in the code arena and our industry also got a major boost with Nicole Harris taking the reins at the National Glass Association; her effect will surely be felt in 2015 and beyond.  It's with people like that on our side that truly keeps me optimistic. 

Overall I am feeling bullish about 2015.  Yes there’s those glass and transport issues I have been nagging everyone on, but I think the smart end of this industry will make it work, and in the end I see things going well in the next year.  Bring it on!

Elsewhere…

--  Congrats to my old friend Kirk Johnson who has taken on a new role as VP of Business Development at Glasswerks.  He will do a great job with them without a doubt.

--  Pretty interesting in depth story for you HERE on the energy efficiency adventures at the Freedom Tower.  It was supposed to be the “greenest” building in the US.  Its not happening…. Nothing to do with the glass, but actually the fuel cells and the effect from Super Storm Sandy.  Great inside story to read. 

--  My ad of the month in Glass Magazine goes to the gang from SAFTI FIRST.  I absolutely loved the 2-page holiday spread and seeing the faces to go with all of the names.  This was an excellent layout and execution- overall really well done.  And fun for me to see some faces I had not seen in years.  Good to see old friends Tom Olson and Joe Marini in there among others.

--  If you are a Pittsburgh sports fan my video of the week is for you.  Pretty incredible walk through the world of Pittsburgh sports set to a great holiday tune/theme.

--  OK so that’s all for me for 2014 unless of course that “big deal” breaks in the next two weeks.  (I still am holding out hope that it’s happening and all of my intel was not wrong.) So please allow me to wish all of you a happy holiday season and a healthy and profitable new year!  Thank you for allowing me into your world each and every week.  I truly appreciate it!  See you in 2015!!

LINKS of the WEEK

--  Stories like this disgust me.  The arrogance and entitlement.  Just blown away that people can act this way.

--  And while we are talking about airplanes and behavior, I guess “seat kicking” is a thing.  I can’t say I’ve ever done or experienced it.  Heck that room is so tight between seats I can’t even lift my foot high enough to kick the chair in front!!

Possibly a UK competitor for Disney?  Sherlock Holmes World?

VIDEO of the WEEK

Again if you are Pittsburgh sports fan- this is for you.  Just an awesome look back at Pittsburgh sporting events and the music is perfect.  As a video geek, this piece is just very cool.

And the winner is....

Last week I noted the handful of people who were considered for the 2014 Industry MVP award, but did not eventually get it.  The time has now come to recognize the winner and like some other mainstream publications have done in the past, I went a little non-traditional with the choice this year.  Instead of picking a person, I actually am picking a company.  I looked at everything this company did this past year, its continued support of the industry and its growth, and to me it was a slam-dunk.  And because it’s a company known for a team effort, I couldn’t just pick one person out.  So I decided to recognize the whole lot (though I will mention one individual below.)  The winner this year of the “From the Fabricator Industry MVP” is... CR Laurence.  From an industry standpoint CRL is always there- at every show and event, always supporting, even though in many cases they probably don’t have to.  But I believe and have been told, they do it because it’s the right thing to do industry-wise.  I sincerely hope it continues.   From a product standpoint, more excellent innovations this year including a unitized curtain wall and window system unveiled at AIA that has game changing potential.  Plus their software releases are huge as well.  And yes when it comes to people, CRL delivers there too- so many make a difference- case in point a guy like Brad Thurman is as impressive as they come.   I've seen Brad in action and he represents his company and this industry with absolute class.  And he’s just one of many there that do a great job, led by excellent ownership and management.  So there you have it, a little different than the typical, but in my opinion a company that deserves the props. 

Elsewhere…

--  The new Glass Magazine is fantastic and one column is a must read.  Please check out Katy Devlin’s piece on the transportation issues facing our industry.  It is worth your time. 

--  I know I am harping on the transportation issue and on the glass capacity issue-and I am told other writers are taking the opposite of my insight on a few of these items, but I continue to talk with people every day, those that are in the trenches, and these issues ARE real.  I guess you can choose which magazine or writer to believe, but when it comes to the best interests of this industry, I feel like I have your backs.  And again what’s the worst thing that can happen, you get ultra organized? 

--  Well just one more blog scheduled for 2014… will the big deal I have been talking about for the last few weeks happen?  It did get very quiet last week on it.  Maybe it’s the calm before the storm or maybe we have a “runaway bride” and the deal was iced.  We shall see.  If/when the deal does happen, I’ll blog about it regardless.

--  Last week I attended a semi-interesting webinar on green building.  For the most part the confidence of continued green building growth is still very strong.  A few tidbits I found interesting… China’s 3 Star energy program passed LEED to become the 2^nd most popular energy related standard in the world.  (Energy Star in the US is #1)… Plus did you know that Singapore offers a rebate for retrofitting buildings to become energy efficient?  I did not… an incentive here surely would be nice.  This last item was big given that the analysts on the webinar felt that the move to green growth was now more about financial advantages than environmental.

--  Last this week… for the first time in my life I hurt my back.  And I can tell you I have no idea how those of you with chronic back problems do it.  You all are my heroes.  My goodness this is brutal and I hope temporary, as I have little to no pain tolerance…

LINKS of the WEEK

I love stories like this… classy and considerate!

Comical link- what if guys acted like girls on Instagram?

This was one of the first apps I ever added… and now the fade of Angry Birds

VIDEO of the WEEK

Well I have seen some crazy things on a golf course but never a baboon.