Moving Forward

Here we are two weeks into our latest adventure, so I checked in with glaziers and fabricators from all over North America and gained their perspectives to add to mine.  I thought for this week it was time to talk about what is happening now and how people are handling it.  Overall it was pretty uniform that people sat down and worked through it. Battled. Yes, jobs were lost to overseas players. As was predicted. Yes, jobs were put on hold until things could be determined more. As was predicted.  But we did see intelligent and creative work from so many to work through this the best way they could.  The point being made to me in several ways is that we can’t just hide under the covers. We have to figure it out and deal with this hand. Kudos to every sales manager or estimating head who had to make those phone calls, re-work quotes, and deal with the confusion and turmoil. There was a ton and you dealt/are dealing with it.  Good on all of you.  

Now, one more piece on the actual increase. I was constantly reminded about the costly nature of making glass. That’s not in dispute. The issue will always be timing and approach. It could’ve and should’ve been better.  Especially when I see how smartly some are handling (more on that below), we had a chance here to do things better.   

One person reminded me of something I would point to a lot here in my travels. A lot of our pricing was the same in 2019 as it was in 1958. Obviously, advancements in machinery and technology allowed us to keep pricing “stable,” but eventually, when the world finally hits a breaking point, that bill would come due. And I’d say from a business sense with inflation rampant and no one at the higher levels of at least the US government seemingly interested in effectively addressing it, that time is now. 

So here we are.  

By the way, lost in some of this is how the big Cardinal purchase of AGC played into this. It changed the landscape, unintentionally at first, and that play helped push this rock down the hill. No doubt when that deal happened no one saw a crazy landscape as we have now.

OK, so on the next steps - it’s been handled in many ways. Viracon had a classy approach which is to be expected. Oldcastle took the bull by the horns. That was important to see and experience, and kudos to them.  Independents took various angles, but for the most part, all are doing their best for the industry and their customers. (Though I’ll note some cowboys out there aren’t. And that thinking is frightening and will not be good in the end) anyway, the march here goes on. We will lose work. We will probably have to re-fight a window-to-wall ratio (thankfully, the NGA and the great industry volunteers will be on guard there) But kudos to the fabs and glaziers who are doing all they can to protect our way of life.

 

Elsewhere…

 

--  I need to note that while I have been commenting on the Guardian and Vitro approaches, their support for the industry in other ways- like education, sponsorship, advocacy and technical- are huge components of what they do and the value there is immense.  I’ve noted several times that the education centers (and I think Vitro’s is incredible) and support of events like GlassBuild matter and I don’t want that lost in the shuffles here.

 

--  So I keep getting stunned.  Yep.  This time it was the latest Architectural Billings Index being in the positive again with its latest report.  I am starting to doubt its accuracy or approach because it’s not jiving with everything else.  Again I would love to be wrong, but something doesn’t feel right.  They’re the experts and no way would they put out details that aren’t accurate, so I’ll take the win… cautiously.

 

--  I’ll be recording for my next podcast this coming week and I am excited for the guests I have lined up. 2 highly successful companies will be represented and I’m excited to get insight into how they’ve done it.  Speaking of podcasts, a new one to recommend is one from John Spelman of YKK.  He has the “Glazing Guru” podcast and it’s an outstanding effort.  I love the range of guests he’s had, including the awesome Frank D’Aprile of Kenpat (whom I could never get on my pod- too big time for me these days!) and one of the talented younger stars in our world- the Arch Insider Russell Williams.  Check it out where you get pods online but here’s the Apple link or search for “The Glazing Guru” 

 

--  I’m so far behind on the embodied and operational carbon issue within our industry so I am thrilled that the great Dr. Kayla Natividad of NSG Pilkington is doing a Thirsty Thursday this week on it. Excellent way to get up to speed from one of the best in our space. Here’s the LINK to sign up.  

 

--  Congrats to Ron Crowl on his new position!  Ron was named as managing director of Compusoft + 2020 Doors, Windows and Glass Vertical Group. Ron is a huge industry supporter and it’s great he’ll continue to be so active in our space!

 

--  Last this week… NO BLOG next week because of Independence Day in the US.  If something wild happens I’ll post and note on LinkedIn.  But hopefully, it’ll be quiet… to all of you celebrating the 4^th of July- be safe, enjoy, and take it easy around the fireworks- both for your health and the dogs in the homes (like me who has too many of them) who go crazy during this time of year!

 

LINKS of the WEEK

--  Bear came through an “open” window and destroys a house.  I wonder if the window was closed if the bear doesn’t come in?

 

--  I don’t do Air BnB’s but these bizarre stories of people getting into the wrong places are something.  This one took on a life of its own

--  I’m a space geek and this story goes way beyond me.  Moon dust and cockroaches.

 

PROJECT of the WEEK

Podcaster extraordinaire and sales rep star Mitch Hawkins posted this one on LinkedIn and given a few industry folks were in Chicago this past week this seemed timely.  

This is The U of Chicago Rubenstein Forum and Viracon is the glass on it and my oh my how nice does that glass look?!?!!  Tremendous work gang!  Also according to Mitch’s post congrats should go to Glass Solutions Inc. and Diller Scofodio + Renfro as well for their efforts.  Love it! 

The Other Shoe Dropped

If last week was the earthquake, then this week was the aftershock.  And a heck of an aftershock indeed.  Just four business days after Guardian Glass dropped a massive 40% price increase on the industry, Vitro followed suit with their version of an increase featuring 40% as the main number.  I was stunned.  I honestly did not think this was coming at this point.  I knew other shoes would fall but I expected a longer time between increases and a lower number.  If you re-read what I wrote last week, there’s been no doubt that the corrections were needed and coming, it was just more to the point of how much and how fast.  So after the fallout of the increase, I could not see how anyone would follow Guardian quickly into the fire.  But Vitro not only followed them in, but pretty much took the heat away from them and positioned it on to themselves.  Pretty wild in a competitive world eh?  The cheering in Auburn Hills when Vitro’s letter came out could be heard for miles.  While the Guardian increase took your breath away, the Vitro one, that fast after, and for pretty much the same amount, smacked of opportunism and not need.  It amazingly made people madder over this issue if that was possible.  A chance to pile on an industry that was and is wounded, confused, scared etc.  Just crazy to see.  And I’m also probably more shocked because I love the folks at Vitro- I worked there a long time ago and have lots of friends there and people I respect immensely.  I just don’t get why they did what they did when and how they did it.  But then again I am on the outside looking in- all I can comment on is what I feel and also how it looks- which to me is not good.  Am I saying Vitro should not have increased?  No. I’m sure their costs have gone up like all of ours, but it sure looks pretty funky that 4 business days after a competitor raises that they have the same exact pressures and the numbers basically are the same.

Also it bears noting that with both increases besides the lack of a clear justification for that big of a number, there is still a fuel/energy surcharge in place and that is no shrinking violet either.  

The psyche of our industry right now is fragile. The back-to-back blows, combined with all else has people from companies of all sizes freaked out.  These increases and the way they are being implemented are extremely hard on all makes and models.  The bigger companies have the most exposure, tons of long-term commitments to work through. The smaller have issues getting materials as is and don’t have the deep pockets to ride things out.  

So time to fight through it all.  We will.  We as an industry always have.  My worries that I noted last week remain.  I don’t want to see bad products imported into our markets. (And again I note, not all imports are bad) I don’t want to see corners cut (like less innovation or specialty) because of this and I don’t want to see less glass on a project because we somehow went crazy on the bottom lines.  Already in the marketplace, we are seeing immediate concerns of project cancellations- as noted in this piece.  Overall just a frustrating run we have going on right now.

 

Elsewhere…

 

--  Interestingly enough the metrics we follow are strong but the concerns that are out there are really giving people pause.  So while I am thrilled when I see the latest DMI in the positive again, I am getting opposite reports from those in the field that they see things slowing. The next Architectural Billings Index is due out this week and I will be floored if it’s in the positive.  But given my track record of late, I guess I’ll be happy to be wrong. We shall see!

 

--  Interesting take here… The US economy issues are crushing things like crypto and the layoffs in that sector are huge. Maybe it’s time to get people trained from these other sectors that are losing people and bring them into ours. Project managers are still a massive need. Plus no matter how nuts our world is, we are still more stable than most.  The question is how do we attract people from these other areas into ours. 

 

--  Saw the sad news of Bill Briese of GED passing away.  Bill was a class act and a true gentleman.  I interacted with him many times at GlassBuild and learned a ton as he would demonstrate what the latest and greatest GED had to offer. Huge loss in so many ways for our industry and world and my condolences to Bill’s family and the team at GED.

 

--  I am big fan of Quaker Windows and they did yet another cool thing recently with the awarding of 28 college scholarships from their TMK Memorial Fund.  Good on Quaker for investing in the youth and their education and hopefully some of those folks will end up in our industry too!  

 

--  Last this week- gotta go lighter… and had to have fun again with another list!   This time it’s the top baby names of the year.  The “classics” are back according to the piece and one classic is “Oliver” which comes in at #3.  That is going to be tough for any kid with that name to get into this industry and be as good as the legendary Oliver Stepe from YKK…. That’ll be an impossible one to live up to!  Some interesting choices here also in the rising names and ones that are losing popularity. Check it out!

 

LINKS of the WEEK

--  This is amazing.  I am all about building culture but walking over hot coals?  Nope.  And this one went wrong!

 

Every week that I post a wild animal story I think it’s the worst I have seen yet.  This week topped it!  Snake bite!

 

And on the flip side- a pet story that I like and glad all is well!

 

PROJECT of the WEEK

From the feed of Rich Harenberg of Erie Architectural, this beauty is in Kansas City and looks fantastic!  Kudos to Erie Architectural for their work and the post also noted the Flynn Companies and YKK AP as well.  Great work everyone!!

The Friday Stunner

Wow. Well on a day that it was announced US Inflation was at its highest rate in 40 years, another bombshell was dropped.  The news in case you missed it was a 40% price increase on glass from Guardian Glass… and that is not a typo. 40%.  While many other industries are used to big numbers like this our industry is not, so just the number alone had people thrown.  Obviously, there’s the initial emotional response in that this is a very tough pill to swallow in a domestic glass availability market that grows tighter by the day.  Not to mention everything else going on in everyone’s operations.  Then there’s the reality of what happens next and how do you deal with it all.  The week ahead is where all of this will come to play. So what is my take on all of this?  I think the timing was odd and the number way too high.  I could justify past price increases and quite frankly with inflation could say one fits here, but 40%?  No way. Maybe there’s a plant issue but if that was the case the letter would've/should've spelled that out.  Without something like that, this number is just hard to fathom.   

Now obviously there’s been a feeling for years that our products needed corrections on the pricing side but to attempt to get them in this manner, at this time, just doesn’t sit well with me.  Aside from the obvious tumult this will cause, It also has the potential to damage the supply chain with GC’s and Developers pushing to go in alternate directions for material, and quite frankly some of those directions won’t be good for our industry or reputation (meaning product quality will not be as good) 

But that’s me, there are probably people who have no issues with timing or total at all, though so far I have yet to talk to one, I assume as this blog gets posted I’ll hear more on it.  As for the next steps...  The OEM side of the business has a different runway to be able to implement this (still challenging) and they’ll be quicker to work through it. But interestingly enough the OEM side has slowed which makes the timing of this quirky.   On the other side, I feel for the project folks, both fabricators and glaziers with committed jobs will have serious issues here.  This increase goes into effect next week, which will surely be an issue.   Even those fabricators and glaziers who may have intelligently built in escalators to protect against volatility, still won’t be covered after a number like this one. 

Companies that are well run will work through this but even the best of the best will have to still reset their plans and raise their game even more.   For the less sophisticated companies or those that have not taken previous increases seriously some bumpy adventures lie ahead.  

The bottom line is once the emotion wipes away (which is going to take a bit), the industry will deal with it.  Companies have to examine what they have going and do what they have to do to survive. I fear for the quality that now may come into our space and the ramifications of that.  (Not every potential new supplier to the industry is poor, but the bad actors will make their way in)  Whether or not this move, in the long run, was a good one for Guardian will be seen- I am sure the market will ultimately decide. The bottom line is we are living in some turmoil-ridden times right now and there are going to be some very tough conversations this week up and down the chain. 

 

Elsewhere…

 

--  After that news above, it was hard to focus on other items- but that is what you want from me right?  So this link was possibly good news on the talk of a recession in the United States.  Moody’s Analytics is telling people like me to slow our roll with the predictions there.  Check out what they have to say and I’d love to be wrong here but I just can’t see how we avoid it.

 

--  More good?  The folks from my podcast last week.  In case you missed it, you can catch up with the amazing Aragon brothers from Aragon Construction and the incredible Kelly Whittingham of Halio Inc. We covered a ton of ground from growing pains to best-in-class technology and more. Thank you for listening/watching

VIDEO

AUDIO

 

--  Good news on the GlassBuild front.  The show hits in October and in the last month 25 new exhibitors signed up.  That is a positive sign of people wanting to get out there and show off their goods and services.  I think as we all know despite the miserable items I have talked about above and previously; we are all busy AND more importantly the need to get BETTER at what we do and how we do it is paramount.

 

--  Interesting blog post on the growth of modular building.  I have been seeing more and more of the “it’s taking off and going crazy” posts vs. this one that pumps the brakes a little.  Good read and thanks to the great Melanie Dettmer of NGA for the find!

 

--  Last this week… Another good read comes from Intelligent Glass Solutions magazine.  This piece covers the incredible benefits of glass and there are just multiple talking points here we should all commit to memory.  The article was attributed to the NSG Group so my assumption is either one of the tremendous duo of Dr. Kayla Natividad and Kyle Sword wrote it.  Or maybe they collaborated but it is fabulous!

 

LINKS of the WEEK

The Starbucks cup controversy explained and figured out.

 

Falling into a tank of chocolate sounds like a dream, but not really- lucky these two are ok!  

 

Next week I’ll a blurb on baby names but this trend of needing help is craziness.  Now Ikea is offering to help… come on!

 

PROJECT of the WEEK

We go to Illinois this week and Nathan Seaman and Architectural Grilles and Sunshades.   This is the Will County Courthouse and it is a stunner!!  This design from Wight & Company and HOK rocks and obviously the kudos go to AGS for their aluminum fins to the curtainwall that just made this building so much better.  According to the LinkedIn post “Threaded rods ensured perfect alignment, and custom clips concealed hardware all while overall lengths reached 46' tall on these bad boys” CONGRATS to Nathan and the gang at AGS for making the building better and our industry standing out once again!

Great People, Resources, Cities and More

The latest “From the Fabricator” podcast is now live and a fun and interesting one yet again!  This month kicks off with Joey and Matt Aragon of Aragon Construction.  Great company and these two are absolutely tremendous.  Their care for the industry and their approach to business are brilliant.  Plus being on the younger side, their influence will carry for a very long time- I love it.  Then I chat with the delightful Kelly Whittingham of Halio.  Kelly took an interesting path to our world and now is a part of some fabulous disruption with a company that is absolutely making moves in their space. Fun talk and she even flips the tables on me too.  Once again, I feel like the luckiest person around with getting to know new and ultra-cool people in our industry and then sharing their knowledge with all of you.  Thank you for checking it out! 

Video version is HERE 

Audio can be found wherever you listen to podcasts or HERE. 

 

Elsewhere…

 

--  I have pointed out here often other blogs or resources that l love to follow including ones from great folks like Rick Alexander, Matt Verderamo, Adrian Lowenstein, John Wheaton, and more.  Now add this one to the list- Michael E Brown and Associates have had some excellent posts including their latest on avoiding unnecessary costs for labor and material.  It was a quick take but valuable and in this day and age that is something we all need.  Nice work MEB team!

 

--  Heads up, some training available on Dow Corning Sealant including product reviews, best practices and more.  This looks to be super helpful for those newer folks and not a bad refresh for the veterans on the team.  More info and a handy QR code for signing up is HERE.

 

--  CONGRATS to David Nelson of CR Laurence who is celebrating his 39^th year in our crazy business!  David is one of the good guys in our universe and here’s hoping he keeps trucking along and spreading the good word for years to come!

 

--  Last week’s post on Fleetwood Mac garnered a lot of feedback and thankfully and correctly all agreed with me that the published list was pure bunk.  Love that many in our space have good taste in music!  Thanks again to all who conversed back and forth with me on that. 

 

--  Have you seen Top Gun- Maverick yet?  If not please do yourself a favor and check it out.  The movie checks all the boxes with great action (well done and not CGI’d) and sound, solid plot, and the pace of it was perfect.  It to me is the perfect diversion from all of the turmoil we deal with daily and a great chance to focus on something else for a couple of hours.

 

--  Last this week… another list… the annual “Best Places to Live” by US News and World Reports is out and of course, I need to comment.  This was the line on the approach they took:

U.S. News analyzed the 150 most populous metro areas to find the best places to live. To make the top of the list, a place had to have good value, be a desirable place to live, have a strong job market and a high quality of life. 

 

Now when you see the list, it makes me wonder if they live in the same world we do… because coming in at #5 is San Jose, CA.  I mean is anywhere right now in California “good value”- please correct me if I am wrong.

The others in the top 5 were 

#4 Boulder, CO

#3 Green Bay, WI

#2 Colorado Springs, CO

#1 Huntsville, AL

 

2 Colorado cities in the top 4 is wild to me.  Meanwhile at the bottom of the list were 5 California cities and Memphis, TN.  The list itself is a rabbit hole that you end up in and surely a headscratcher all the way.  By the way my birth city of Pittsburgh, PA, once rated #1 on this list a few years back came in at #26 this year, right behind Nashville, TN and Jacksonville, FL. 

The entire list is HERE

 

LINKS of the WEEK

--  Odd one- when going “green” isn’t good

 

--  You probably saw this… a popcorn shortage at the Movies is next

 

A rare “Cougar” attack and brave little girl survives

 

PROJECT of the WEEK

Back to the great state of Texas again for one of my favorite guys in this industry- Rick Newnom of Hou-Tex Glass. Rick is a class guy and my gosh this in-process job is a showstopper.  The glass looks fantastic and can’t wait to see it when it is done.  Congrats to Rick and his team at HouTex on a project well done and keep up the great work!  And kudos to whomever the suppliers were on this too!!