Down but not Out

Recently the AIA released their “Consensus” forecast update that takes 8 different indexes and averages them out.  The prediction for 2021 when all is said and done is a 5.7% decrease in non-residential spending in the new year. The main drivers that are pushing the numbers down are Lodging (down 20%) and Amusement (down 12.6%) and I think both areas are pretty obvious given what we are going through right now.  I found it interesting that education is only expected to drop 3.9% given the uneasy world that segment is at right now.  So that said I think that can be taken as a positive.  It goes without saying that no negative numbers are welcomed but I do think we can all make this work if the overall drop is only in that 5% range.  The predictions all point to an uptick geared towards the end of the year and plus numbers expected in health and public safety have me feeling hopeful on the year ahead.  This consensus only takes in what the 8 forecasts play out and some of those track records are not the greatest, but we all need a roadmap to follow, so we have one now- let’s keep hustling and see what happens.

 

Elsewhere…

 

--  Thank you to everyone who watched/listened to my podcast debut last week.  I am stunned.  The reaction was way beyond what I expected, and I was thrilled to hear from so many people- including folks I hadn’t talked to in a while.  I truly appreciate it!  Funniest is that on the video portion, my mess of a background dominated the conversation- who knew an awful basement setup with a stuffed dog could get people going!  Anyway, new and better backgrounds coming on the next edition!  Thanks again for the interest and support!  If you haven’t seen it yet and want to check it out- click HERE for video or search for From the Fabricator on your favorite podcast app!

 

--  Congrats to Rick Locke on the new website for his Montana Sash and Door website!  I love taking a look at new sites and this one is breathtaking.  Tremendous work by Rick and team and a great way to mix excellent product with awesome scenery!

 

--  As you may have seen, the 2020 BEC Conference was postponed.  It’s a crusher for me- I love that event, but I understand why this happened and I will stay positive that we’ll get GlassBuild in person in the Fall and then an awesome BEC back in Nashville in 2022.  In the meantime, the “BEC Presents…” program that the team is putting together will be very valuable and easy to take part in.  Looking forward to that!

 

--  The new Glass Magazine is out and it's time for my monthly review.  “What’s Next” is the cover and so appropriate for the year we are headed into.  Once again Katy Devlin, Norah Dick and team were awesome here.  The Annual Forecast (which is a VERY deep dive) and World of Glass Coverage is very strong and interesting, and I loved hearing from two of my favorites Joe Erb of Quanex and Tim Finley of TFin Building Solutions.  Check this issue out cover to cover- well worth the time!!

 

--  The ad of the month was extremely competitive this month with several newer advertisers taking some shots and being impressive.  But like I usually say – only 1 can win my prestigious honor each month… and so in a tight battle the winner this time around goes to Diamon-Fusion International (DFI).  Yes, I am a huge Syndi Sim/Matt Peters fan, but setting that aside for a moment their 2-page spread was smart and eye catching.  The layout stopped me, and the information pulled me in an kept me.  Textbook awesome ad.  Congrats DFI team!  Nice work!

 

--  Last this week… an article to share from a cousin of mine who is NOT in the glass business and never has been.  My cousin Joanne Perilstein has been blind for more than 20 years and she recently wrote about her experience in the Philadelphia Inquirer.  It is an amazing piece for perspective sakes- what she went through then and still goes through now is something very intense and surely makes you think twice when you feel like you are up against it.  Super read and I am proud to share. 

 

LINKS of the WEEK

 

--  Commercials at Super Bowl look to be a lot different this year.  In fact, I am actually more excited for the game than the commercials!  (Plus I did predict this match up)

 

--  Burglar shoots himself in the leg.  On the Ring Doorbell video too!

 

--  A creative new way to do Parades- Introducing “House Floats”

 

PROJECT of the WEEK

 

First last week I missed adding Viracon and Panelite to that awesome Tata Hall Project.  Got the additional details via the architect (H/T Tom Morr) and obviously don’t want slight anyone credit wise.  Fabulous job!

 

Now to this week…  From a newer source on the scene- Jacob Oestreich of Green University Engineering posted this soon to be complete apartment structure in Reno.  Sharp looking job.  Jacob and team provided the shop drawings on the storefront, curtain wall, railing and sliding aluminum doors.  This job is being installed by the great team by NVision Glass of Reno and Oldcastle BuildingEnvelope fabricated the storefront and curtain walls.  Good work everyone!

 

The New Addition- A Podcast!

I am excited to announce a new addition to the “From the Fabricator” family.  I have launched a new monthly podcast!  Yes as if once a week my writing was not enough, now once a month you can see/hear me talking up the industry.  The podcast is going to have a similar feel to what I do here but featuring several segments and short interviews.  Each episode will have industry folks talking about products, projects, events and so on.  For my first episode I was honored to have on Tim Kelley, President at Tristar Glass, talking about the amazing culture at his company, challenges from 2020 and what’s ahead in the new year.  Then Tom O’Malley, Managing Partner at Clover Architectural joined me and took an awesome dive into 2 neat projects.  Finally, Urmilla Sowell, Technical Director/Czar at the National Glass Association stopped in and we previewed the NGA Glass Conference.  At the beginning I give some thoughts on our world and at the end, “Fun stuff” including a must watch documentary…

The debut episode has some minor kinks to work out but I think for a maiden voyage it turned out ok. It is in video form HERE or you can find it podcast form by searching in your phone in the Podcast section (in Apple, Spotify and many others)

I am excited to say that I have already lined up some awesome guests for next month, so we are off and rolling.  I welcome any and all thoughts and suggestions and appreciate you adding it to your listening or watching cycle.  Thank you.

 

And before I move on- thanks to Andrew Haring and John Wheaton for giving me the push and inspiration to do this.   John’s “Creating Structure” pod is the gold standard and I will always be pushing that here too. And speaking of John’s podcast- his latest with the awesome Jerry Schwabauer of Azon is out now. Incredible talk and the “iceberg” theme is a meaningful one amongst an excellent discussion. Check it out HERE.

 

Elsewhere…

 

--  As predicted the December Architectural Billings Index came in with a rough score.  The index dipped 3.7 points to come in at 42.6.  Brutal score but honestly expected.  Everything else stayed flat, including new project inquiries which have been solid at 52.4.  (50 is the break even score on all) So the good news is inquiries keep happening which is something to hang your hat on at least for a little bit of hope. The index being down is something that continues to be a worry especially if it doesn’t show some better signs of life in the next few months.  Again we knew we had some valleys coming our way, question continues to be how long will it take us to traverse them….

 

--  Do not forget to sign up for the NGA Glass Conference- it is coming up on February 9^th. Everyone always talks about getting Government work.  Well one of the main sessions is a great piece on the innerworkings of the GSA. If you truly want to know what makes that segment tick you will sign up for this.  Here’s the link- and OH BY THE WAY- check out that company rate- one flat rate and you can have a bunch of people from your organization take part. Incredible deal. 

 

--  Nice move from the team at Frameless Hardware Co. with the addition of Danny Donahue as Brand Manager for Frameless Shower Hardware.  Danny is major influential force amongst the shower door community (I think only Chris Phillips may be bigger) so it’s a great add.  I also like it because Danny has always been active in helping the industry by being involved at the NGA level, and volunteering his time and insight.  I assume that approach will continue in his new role too.  Congrats Danny and FHC!

 

--  Last this week… Did you know that General Motors is debuting a new logo?  I did not until I saw a post from Alex Buechel of Learn Glazing.  He posted them and there was some good give and take amongst a bunch of commenters.  I personally do not like it- I am a traditionalist- and there’s certain logos and looks you just don’t mess with it.  (Like my pal Steve Cohen and his Penn State Nittany Lions- imagine if they added a logo on the helmets or came out with new uniforms- wouldn’t work) Anyway if you are on LinkedIn- check this link out and add your thoughts…

 

LINKS of the WEEK

There’s a lot to unpack on this one….

I’ve talked about my love for the insurance company commercials on here a few times, here’s a look at a current favorite “Scoop there it is!”

 

My friend who sent me this said it best “gotta be flexible in this new world” yes it’s overstocked wine from American Airlines!

 

PROJECT of the WEEK

 

We go to the west with an amazing project from one of my new favorite architectural firms, CO Architects out of Los Angeles.  This is the University of California-San Diego Tata Hall for the Sciences and it is a blockbuster from a look and energy efficiency standpoint.  The high-performance glass approach is led by an excellent use of Electrochromics from SAGE Glass that was installed by the team at Tower Glass.  Beauiful and smart building!  CO Architects wrote up the details behind this and it’s an impressive read- check it out HERE. Nice work everyone!!  

Predictions for 2021

Hot off the presses it’s time to dive into my predictions for our industry in 2021.  This should be a very interesting year (understatement alert) as we continue to hopefully move further and further away from the 2020 virus.  So here goes…

 

--  Glass is going to be the big winner post COVID-19.  Between all my talks with our industry and the design community, I am extremely confident the usage of glass on the interior will grow nicely but so will more glass on the exterior.  Natural light was always gaining strength with studies showing how it’s a positive for productivity and health, but now in our soon to be “new normal” glass is going to be a monster. There’s no other building product that can come close.

 

--  2021 wiil be a “Donut” year- a hole in the middle and then solid- Get ready for a roller coaster ride.  I think we start fast, suffer in the middle, and then end strong.  We have a hole in the center of a lot of forecasts this summer thanks to the reduction of starts in Q2/Q3 last year. How long will that lull last?   Will weather and other logistics slide backlogs that could help smooth over the valley to come?   I think we may have some of that but the donut is ours to deal with.

 

--  Protective Glass is absolutely in style now- I say it almost every year but given the year we had, the need for that extra level of protection is now more focused than ever.  Our industry has a ton of options in this field and while other products are out of stock or long lead-time, we are always pumping material out.  

 

--  Automation- real automation, and continued software growth- Labor was rough before 2020 but now it’s somehow even harder to attract.  Did not think that was possible, but it is.  So what’s the play?  Automation. And I am talking machinery & equipment that can do the work of several areas of a plant floor or site.  The more it can be combined the better.  And quite frankly it has to happen. So to me this is a lock.  Software for both fab plants and glaziers has also evolved and improved dramatically.   Luckily there’s quite a few excellent options for this innovation and technology and if you haven’t moved on it before then, GlassBuild in the fall will be loaded with it. 

 

--  Emergence of high performance code busters-  Codes and standards like New York Local Law 97 and all of the various national ones are growing.  Our industry has always taken an unfair beating that we don’t have the products to meet the needs.  We do!  We have great low e’s, at least one tremendous VIG option, big time spacer advancements, tons of options on framing etc.  We have the answers to the questions out there and this year I think you see us growing our emphasis nicely.  

 

What does everyone else think?  Let me know!

 

Elsewhere…

 

--  I did see online that the great Greg Oehlers of Tristar Glass has officially retired, though I am pretty sure he will still be around a little bit to keep tabs on things he had in the works.  Even with that- I just wanted to wish Greg only the best for this next stage of his life.  Hard to find a better guy than Greg and what he has done for our industry and the people who worked with him!   Congrats my friend, enjoy your retirement! 

 

--  Thirsty Thursday this week is a fascinating one and it’s being led by a person I have heard a ton of awesome things about and look forward to meeting one of these days. Kayla Natividad of Pilkington/NSG is presenting- Glass Options for a Healthy Built Environment.  This a big-time subject as occupant comfort was a huge issue pre pandemic and will be massive as we emerge.  This is Thursday at 1PM.  Learn more and sign up HERE!

 

--  Builder Magazine had the 5 Housing Markets to watch in 2021 and you know since I love lists, this one is for me.  This was based on where people want to live, improving property values and so on.  Here they are with some of my comments:

1-    Dallas- oh you know me and the great state of Texas.  So I can see this and back it.

2-    Jacksonville- Wow- Florida has a lot of option but did not see JAX as the call here.  Thomas Lee or maybe now Urban Meyer must be the draw!

3-    Phoenix- Being out west but not in California seems to be the draw

4-    Raleigh- Similar to my Jacksonville comment, surprised this is the choice in North Carolina.  I have only been there twice- Nice area.

5-    Salt Lake City- I have always liked this area and I am sure the growth there is insane since the last time I spent any time there in 2011.

For me I would’ve had Charleston or Greenville, SC on this list of 5 along with Nashville.  Still I love this good fodder for the blog!

 

--  Last this week… The Minnesota building I wrote about and asked for input on had some news attached to it.  The Historic Preservation Committee will now study and make the call. I really enjoyed the feedback I got from the always awesome folks from the Twin Cities.  Thank you to all and we’ll keep an eye on where this one ends up!

 

LINKS of the WEEK

 

--  Target should actually be celebrated for announcing smartly they’ll close again on US Thanksgiving- this snarky headline seemingly disagrees. (Note- I don’t think any store should be on that day)

 

--  Crazy sinkhole/gold mine story- and not covered by insurance.  I had something similar (a sinkhole) that wasn’t covered either.  Brutal!

 

--  An ostrich out for a stroll…

 PROJECT of the WEEK

This week from the LinkedIn feed of Leslie Robinson of Robinson Hall Architectural Products.  Really solid and sharp project here that again shows off that we all make and install some awesome products.  This one is Robinson Hall’s fabrication of Kawneer curtain wall with Vitro’s beautiful Solarban® R100 on Optiblue.  I just saw this come across my feed and it popped off the screen.  Nice work everyone!!

Looking Back Before We Look Forward

As is tradition, on the 2^nd post of the new year I make predictions for our industry right here on this blog.  Some years are better than others and each following year I review them and either take a victory lap or take my lumps.  Obviously for my 2020 predictions I should get a pass on all because the year surely wasn’t normal.  In any case I still need to look back here and review my calls.  Here goes:

 “Earthquake deal” I was calling for a major player or players to be sold and I think it would’ve happened in a few cases if things did not go so sideways.  

 “The D 10 Revolution is here-The interior office space is perfect for glass.” – I think all of the parts and pieces were here and 2020 was the start.  The pandemic and the changing of the office space and needs within it are absolutely perfect for glass and the whole “Division 10” play.  So I count this as a win and look out, it’s only going to grow- especially when more competent companies (like more folks from the actual glass industry) join in the space.

“The words “delegated design” get clarified but also go main stream” – They did get clarified but is it main stream now? I don’t know.  It surely seemed lost in the wash and did hit like I thought.

“Big leap on virtual reality and software helping the glazier manage projects and jobsites” Maybe I’m crazy but this SHOULD’VE taken off but I don’t think it did.  I think people getting used to working remotely took the air out this.  Maybe 2021 it will happen. 

“Glazier training and certification makes the leap.” – No doubt in my mind that the rough 2020 landscape hurt this movement but I still saw a ton of great things from NACC and AGMT.  They added more certified plays in their efforts and to me that is huge- the folks there are doing great work to show the value which I believe is a must in our world.  As for education it was available everywhere- online like never before- and so I think it gained but the saturation also hurt it as did the inability to meet in person.

So in the end I was pretty much on my typical pace of predictions with some right, some wrong, some maybe…. Next week I’ll be making the fearless choices for 2021 so stay tuned for that one!

 

Elsewhere…

 

--  For a lot of us understanding things like carbon emissions and where we fit as an industry is a heavy lift.  So this article from Dr. Helen Sanders of Technoform really was clutch.  As readers of this blog know, I am huge fan of Helen’s and it’s items like this that solidify that belief.  Check it out!

 

--  I missed mentioning the news of Paul Mahedy joining Hartung Glass at COO.  Paul has done some incredible things in this industry on the ops side, so this looks like a fabulous hire.  Congrats to Paul and the Hartung team.

 

--  I mentioned NACC and AGMT above and their parent organization the AGMCC made big news before the holidays with the addition of Rowan Georges of SOM to their Board.  SOM obviously is a massive leader on the architectural side of the world and adding someone of influence from that company to a board within our industry is brilliant.  I also have had the chance to chat with Rowan and he is an incredibly sharp and impressive person.  This is excellent news for all involved for sure. 

 

--  A question for my many Minnesota readers...  This building is scheduled to be torn down but there’s now a fight to save the 1969 structure.  What do you all say on it?  I believe in historic preservation when logical and when there is a way to improve the building in the various must needed facets (safety, energy, security, etc.)  However on the flip side, keeping a building and potentially not improving it (where I have seen in Detroit waaaay too many times) is not a good thing.  What say you fine people from the Twin Cities?

 

--  Last this week- Super Bowl predictions… yes these are usually always wrong but I do it so people can sit back and enjoy the awfulness of my sports picks. (note before the season started I was on Carolina- oof!)  Now I’m going with a Kansas City repeat.  Patrick Mahomes is so good that I just can’t see him losing along the way.  They will beat Tom Brady and the Bucs in what should be a pretty solid game.  Sorry in advance fans of those teams!! 

 

LINKS of the WEEK

 

--  Don’t eat Icicles.  Seriously it needed to be said!

 

--  Interesting story on the strategy of the movie “Trolls” going to video on demand.  By the way sidenote- I saw Wonder Woman 84 in the theater and my gosh was it brutally bad.

 

-- I’m a fan of stories that have criminals getting unlucky and busted!  

 

PROJECT of the WEEK

I love smart projects that show our industry at its best and this week’s entry does it well! This is a stunning Net Zero HQ in Colorado.  It is a beauty and it shows off our products AND our best performance too.  Another all-star group of industry heavyweights collaborated on this one.  Tubelite led the way on the Curtain Wall and Window Wall.  Tremendous.  Deceuninck (more than just a group with an awesome GlassBuild booth!) supplied the Window Wall Thermal Pressure Plate, Linetec did the finishes, and Colorado Window Systems brought it home in style as the glazier.  Glass wise, this one had me awe.  Excellent fabrication was done by Tristar (as always) with primary glass from Guardian Glass. (SNX62/27 on Crystal Blue)  

The complete read on this with all the performance details etc.- is HERE. Congrats to all!

A hearty thank you to the great Heather West for pointing this one my way!

 

And so we begin!

Has there ever been a new year where there is an absolute unanimous agreement that it is great to move on to the next?  I think obviously this is the one with all of us now looking forward with hope and positivity to 2021.  I know the start of this year promises to have some bumps but as we get rolling, I do feel like things around us will improve and by mid-year we’ll be rocking. So, buckle up and let’s go!  

 

--  One of the keys I stress constantly is education and the more you can gain the better off you will be. Registration is now open for the one-day NGA Glass Conference. (online 2/9/21)  This event has 2 sessions that are huge for your overall knowledge base. One is a deep dive into the codes, which for all of us, is an extremely important area of focus.  The other is an incredible session pulling back the curtains into the insight of the GSA.  I hear from people all the time on trying to get more government work, and this session is a great start to learning on what they want, care about and are focused on. Register now- and also take advantage of the Fun Run and Networking- even though both are virtual, still will be worthy.  Here is the link, get 2021 off to a great start by signing up now!

 

--  The last Architectural Billings Index of 2020 was released after my last blog of the year posted. Remember break-even is 50.  The main score lost a tad of ground going from 47.5 to 46.3.  Contracts also lost momentum dropping from 51.7 to 48.6.  Inquiries stayed in the positive for the 4^thstraight month though and that is always nice to see.  So a little bit of a pullback which I think was pretty expected. Analysis from the AIA showed optimism heading into 2021, and I am on that train too.  Though I think the score that drops later this month won’t be great as it will have the remaining effects of the end of 2020 attached to it. For us as industry what’s next is experiencing the downturn that the ABI is built to call out- which means the next few months could be lean.  So far though we’ve been resilient and with sliding backlogs and projects moving forward, we’ve hung in there and I expect us to continue to do so.  

 

--  Big people news in our industry during the holidays.  Apogee named a successor for Joe Puishys and Oldcastle BuildingEnvelope appointed a new President.  The new CEO at Apogee is Ty Silberhorn and he comes to the role from 3M.  He has huge shoes to fill with regards to support of our industry as Puishys really championed for our products and way of life. I am excited to see what Silberhorn does and what he brings to our world.  At OBE, Liz Haggerty takes the wheel and while I don’t know Liz, many people who do know her have reached out to me with glowing reviews on her skillset and care for the industry at large.  So that has me obviously pumped and looking forward positively.  Congrats to both!

 

--  Did you catch the latest edition of Glass Magazine?  It is the annual Top Metal Companies edition and it does not disappoint.  The list of Top Metal players is always a great draw and it’s more than just a list of companies, it features trends, challenges, and other insight and data that really educate.  But also in this issue, Katy Devlin with a cool look at working with a challenging install and one of my all-time favorites Tammy Schroeder of Linetec has a great piece on finishes. That piece featured Super Sky’s wild “Circus Circus” skylight which surely was a nice add to an already good article too! This and so much more in the latest issue. (November/December 2020)

 

--  Ad of the Month is always so hard because there’s usually a handful or more great ones in each issue and this one was filled with them.  But I am trying to only pick one and this month the nod goes to Banner Solutions.  It was the color choices in the ad that really worked- along with the font style. It really worked and drew me in. So no idea who at Banner did this one, but if you know that person or team, tell them great job for me!

 

--  One of the best comebacks on TV was “Cobra Kai” If you watched the Karate Kid movies back in the day, you’ll love this series.  It is a light and easy series for the most part with some excellent nostalgia along the way.   Anyway the new season dropped on January 1 and in the final episode, glass, yes our beloved product, is in a major scene and I think the filmmakers got it wrong on how the used it.  I won’t spoil it, but if you watched the episode and caught the mistake, hit me up.  I’ll circle back to this down line to explain to the rest of the world Hollywood’s mistake… despite that an awesome season 3 from Cobra Kai with hopefully more to come.

 

--  Last this week… as is tradition at the start of the year, I will be recapping my previous year predictions on next week’s blog (I should get a pass because of COVID right?) and then in 2 weeks my fearless predictions for 2021.  Plus I’ll soon be announcing something new and I think pretty interesting to add to your menu of items to follow.  So, like I said above I head into 2021 knowing it’s going to be a little rocky but I know this year will be great and I am excited to take it all on and have all of you on the journey with me.  Thank you!

 

LINKS of the WEEK

 

This is from my Mom’s generation where everyone was so much tougher and this gal surely fits the bill.

 

This is great.  Between this and things like the Barstool Fund, a great run for needed charity this past season.

 

Quick interesting piece here- I have written about how creative insurance commercials are, and this one had to evolve as well.

 

BONUS- even the drug cartels struggled and then evolved with the new world thanks to the virus

 

PROJECT of the WEEK

 

The first project of year two of this section ended up on my LinkedIn feed thanks to Tom O’Malley of Clover Architectural.  This project is from TSI Corporation and it is special.  This is 9950 Medical Center Drive and I am a fan all of the industry partners that took part in this one.  Obviously TSI did a great job on the install, using unitized curtainwall from Erie Architectural, filled with glass from Viracon.  The project also featured the aforementioned Clover Architectural on some incredible sunshades that had a stunning woodgrain finish from Quality Powder Coating.  Congrats to all that worked on this job, and way to make our industry look great! Oh and absolutely I am now following TSI Corporation on LinkedIn so I can see the great work happen when they post- but thank you Tom for sharing this one out there!