Sunday, January 05, 2014

Fearless Forecast

I hope everyone had a great set of holidays and is ready for a super year ahead.  I for one have very positive feelings about 2014.  I liked the way the year ended with most companies busy and most regions seemingly in good shape economically.  And I liked the forecasts, even though I know they are usually wrong.  More than that it’s just a feeling I have that we have very good things coming our way in the next year.  And so to get it started, here are five industry predictions for the next 12 months.

1.     There will be one major acquisition in the glass fabrication side of the business that will have the industry buzzing.  Otherwise 2014 will be light on the merger/acquisition side but look out 2015 will be crazy with them.
2.     Both GANA BEC and GlassBuild America will be hugely successful.  And yes I have worked or do work with both of these so consider my bias, but I will say both are primed for big years.  The BEC 2014 has a very strong agenda and I have seen the plans for GlassBuild America and I promise you that you will be impressed and WANT to be there.
3.     A new green rating system will start to take hold.  Right now LEED is beyond dominant and will continue to be the major player, but look out for one of the smaller organizations breaking through. (More on that possibility below)
4.     The code battles will continue and I believe an unlikely ally (another industry) will join forces with the glass industry giving us a stronger voice in the proceedings.
5.     The use of 4th surface Low E will continue to grow and become a much bigger player in the specification process.

I could’ve gone on and on, but this gives you a flavor for what I see in my crystal (glass) bowl.


--  I noted above that LEED will be challenged more significantly in the new year and I truly believe that.  Whether its from its opponents who may be working off of misconceptions or desire to improve their own interests, or from better systems, I think its going to happen.  Want more flavor on it?  Check out this story.

--  During my break I was almost tempted to log on and blog when I saw the blurb about the NFRC seeking more commercial manufacturers to come on board to support the CMA process.  Evidently the commercial manufacturer has been slow to accept and jump on the NFRC’s program.  That does not shock me at all and I think the mountain here is very high to climb.  They are doing some of the right things to improve their communication, but there’s still that nagging issue of its actual need.  The NFRC has effectively (although this is debatable too) made the case for need on the residential side; it’s still never come close to being successful on that effort on the commercial end of things.

--  One forecast I really hope is accurate is the “Smart Glass” one… 700 million in 2013.  I am so into that space and hopeful for it.  It truly is the disruptive force we need to keep moving our industry forward.

Some random notes from my time off:

--  Those of you who fly, you have to love the Delta safety video.  They took the most ignored process on the plane, went creative with it and its brilliant.

--  I saw Saving Mr. Banks over the break.  Great movie.  And Emma Thompson is your lock for Best Actress Oscar.

--  I also saw a great documentary on the group Journey and their new lead singer from the Philippines.  They found him while searching Youtube and this movie told the entire story.  My bet is this will become a Disney movie soon, too amazing of a story not to.

--  I like the Seattle Seahawks, my favorite team as a kid, to win the Super Bowl.  I hope I’m not jinxing my friends in the Northwest with that pick, but I love Russell Wilson and really think he gets it done.

-- Stay warm folks... this winter blast is off the charts....


--  I had no idea that Mick Jagger had a brother… who plays music no less….

--  This story makes no sense to me.  No clue how in the world this can happen… a man left on a plane… seems impossible.

--  This is a tough one- airline has a policy that on the surface makes sense and somehow doesn’t make sense.  There’s an answer somewhere…


And one last look back to 2013… the best of the year in news bloopers.  Some good, some bad, some tasteless….but all were on air for the world to see.

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