Index Down

Hope everyone in the US had a good Thanksgiving holiday.  The one area that did not was the Architectural Billings Index.  After months of waiting for the “other shoe to drop” and the index to be underwater, its latest reading limped in with an ugly 47.7 rating.  Remember 50 is the break-even mark and for close to 2 years we’ve been over it and in the last few months we’ve expected the drop and it finally happened.  Obviously, this now tracks with the predictions Connor Lokar made at GlassBuild looking at a negative turn in the commercial market for March of 2024. (Because of the runway from design to build)  There was a bit of good news in the monthly forecast though- new project inquiries stayed above the 50 mark- so the tires are still being kicked.  

Meanwhile there were a few other forecasts that happened in the last 2 weeks, and both were similar to what I’ve reported previously.  However, there were some interesting nuggets including:

·      When we do hit negative territory, that run is expected to be short.

·      Labor continues to be an issue (and will always be) but right now we are at the highest amount of construction job openings- ever.

·      New office construction is ugly.  The renovation side may help us but the new stuff is somewhat bleak.  Did you know the best year for office construction was 1985?  I am astounded by that.

·      Education looks strong- both on new and on the renovation side. 

So we’ll keep plugging along…

 

Elsewhere…

 

--  Very sad to hear about the passing of Joe Sennese of Vitro.  What a good guy.  I met Joe several years ago and he had this awesome enthusiasm for his work and for PPG/Vitro.  It was always a pleasure to run into him and I am truly bummed that will never happen again.  My thoughts and condolences are with Joe’s family, friends, and co-workers at Vitro.

 

--  Some exciting news with the big acquisition by Clover Architectural Products.  The great Tom O’Malley and company expanded their footprint with the addition of American Custom Metal.  Tom and the team have been on fire since day 1 there, and so exciting to see the growth continue!  Congrats to all on this awesome deal.

 

--  Also congrats to the latest Board of Directors at the National Glass Association.  Once again the board is made up of the best of the best in our world.  The rundown on who’s involved can be found HERE.  I have confidence that this group will continue the great work the NGA has going on and keep advancing us as an industry.  

 

--  Did you see you could have an opportunity to be at the United Nations for the closing ceremony of the International Year of Glass?  This is something very special and I am depressed I can’t be there, but if any of you can- especially those in the tri-state area- you should jump on.  For more information on how to gain access and more- click HERE.

 

--  Hotel design in 2022… fun piece here which I am sure a guy like David Corle is all over when it comes to the glass.  I like a lot of these enhancements and I will say every time I drive past “The Wave” in Florida it blows my mind. 

 

--  Last this week… new show I’m watching is “Tulsa King” with Sylvester Stallone.  For me it’s like Rocky plays a gangster and that alone because my love of “Rocky” makes me enjoy it.  Similar to watching “Your Honor” and seeing the same lead character (Bryan Cranston) from “Breaking Bad” and me thinking “Walter White as a judge” – anyway good stuff!

 

LINKS of the WEEK

Something tells me we’ll hear more on this kid some day- great story

 

Amazing story- guy sees cracks in a building, alerts officials, and they clear it before collapse!

 

The whole FTX saga continues to be amazing/riveting reads.  How so many smart and rich people could fall for this is unreal.  Meanwhile the Miami arena now needs a new name sponsor… “From the Fabricator Arena” anyone?  LOL 

 

PROJECT of the WEEK

From the LinkedIn feed of the legend Heather West and Heather West Public Relations comes this stunner from Washington University.  LEEDv4 Gold and WELL rated and it’s got the best of the best from some of the real heavy hitters in our space including Tubelite, Linetec, Viracon, and Wausau Widow.  Nice work everyone! 

Winding Down 2022

Down the stretch of 2022 we come.  These next 7 weeks will fly on by, so buckle in.  While usually some people start to coast to finish out the year, many others are grinding trying to get their plans for next year in line.  I suggest that hustle approach because you surely don’t want to be working from behind when the calendar changes.  Get the budget done, plan the marketing and communications, get those new product and material meetings on the books (and done if possible) and plan, plan, plan.  I think post-Covid our world has changed, more angles are fluid, and the standard approaches just don’t exist anymore.  And obviously there is time to decompress with the way the holidays are structured, but don’t go overboard or you’ll regret it!  

 

As for me on the blog/podcast.  I have 4 more blogs coming for the year including my annual Glass Industry MVP one.  I have 2 more podcasts, that if it all comes together (one is very much in flux still) will be exciting to do and to listen/watch.  Note- no blog next week leading into Thanksgiving.  I’ll be back in this space the week of 11/27.

 

Elsewhere….

 

--  In case you missed it- my current podcast is one with the awesome Lisa Lococo Smith of Kawneer and Jennifer Lang of Minneapolis Glass. Amazing talents those two!  Also, an apology I screwed up and called the wonderful Alicia Hamilton of NGA, Alicia Smith.  My brain really is mush most of the time.  So sorry Alicia and great work from you, Melanie Dettmer and the NGA team on the Women in Glass and Fenestration event.  Check out the podcast in your pre-holiday travels via VIDEO or AUDIO.  Thanks!

 

--  The Dodge Momentum Index continues to chug along and yet another nice month from it.  This is the index that is more “now” and from the general contracting side.  So we’ll take it.  There are soft spots out there still, but most are staying busy and positive, so let’s keep rolling.  NOTE- the next Architectural Billings Index drops early this month on 11/16- so because of the early release possibly it stays positive?  We will see and I’ll break it down on my next post.  In addition, two other forecasts are due to report out this week, so we’ll be monitoring those and reporting back later.

 

--  A big congrats to Coleman Jones at Pioneer Cladding and Glazing.  Coleman was named Chief Business Development Officer this past week and he’ll be awesome there.  He’s been a standard bearer at Pioneer for a long time and I am sure he’ll continue with the great success he’s always had.  My guy Paul Robinson there has just a dream team of folks on that squad.  Love it.  Congrats Coleman!

 

--  A couple of good resources out on the Inflation Reduction Act and how the investment tax credit works for dynamic and solar.  The fine folks at Ubiquitous Energy broke it down nicely in this post that includes some additional resources. On the dynamic side, SAGE Glass did a great job with a well thought out FAQ that features a bunch of links for more detail.  Good stuff from both and it seems like if people take advantage of this (and it is a big “if” since we’ve all been through previous stimulus and other tax credit plays that stalled out) it will be a positive for high performing specialty glass! 

 

--  I’m old.  And so this is a comical pet peeve.  But my kids will slam the door my jeep like they are trying to hold off an army or something.  These doors are lightweight- no need to slam.  I mean if you had to shut a door on a 77 Monte Carlo, you had to use all the muscle in your being to get that one shut- but now?  No major energy needed.  Anyway, had to get a “get off my lawn” rant out. 

 

--  Last this week- Thanksgiving is approaching and those who know me know it is my all-time favorite holiday.  And so with that- THANK YOU dear reader/listener/watcher/supporter.  I truly appreciate it.  It means so much to me that I can use this space as a weekly therapy and also share what is going on in our space.  No doubt blessed with great people in this industry and grateful that for 17 years now so many of you have followed me on this journey.  I wish only the best to you and yours and I hope everyone has a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday.

 

LINKS of the WEEK

I’m torn on the whole new twitter debate- it’s not any worse than it used to be, but no doubt the rollout of the $8 verified button went badly.  

 

Did a meteorite destroy this guys home?

 

Dogs are the best.  Another winning effort here

 

PROJECT of the WEEK

I have no idea who Allstate Glass is but this project appeared on my feed and l liked it!  This is a job somewhere in the Boston area from what I could tell from the post, and I loved the glass work and ribbon windows.  So nice work Allstate team and if anyone knows them- tell em to keep up the good work (and to also give credit to whomever supplied and fabricated the glass and metal too!!)

New Pod and the Deal Gets Done

Busy week in our world, so let’s get to it!

 

--  First off, a new podcast for you... the latest From the Fabricator episode has two people who aren’t usually in the spotlight in our industry but should be and are very interesting and cool!  I lead it off with Lisa Lococo Smith of Kawneer and her path to the industry is not what we are all used to but it works!  She brings some serious energy and presence to our space.  Then on to Jennifer Lang of Minneapolis Glass.  She is a very accomplished and brilliant player in our industry and a major leader and influencer.  She also breaks some big news about her company towards the end of our talk too which was incredible.  Overall, two awesome people for the great month of November.  Thanks for checking it out!

VIDEO

AUDIO or on Apple, Spotify etc.

 

--  Obviously, news of Trulite sale was a big one and folks THAT was the deal I had been waiting on for last few months.  I can’t tell you how many times I was told “it’s done, will be announced Friday” and it just never would happen.  Well, it finally happened, and it surely is an interesting one for all parties. First deal for the new company and new owners for Trulite for the first time in a long time… So within a year two of the biggest players in the fabricator side of things have changed hands. And I think there’s a few more adventures ahead M&A wise.  

 

--  A very good man is hanging it up.  Jerry Schwabauer of Azon is retiring.  Jerry has always been one of the nicest and most welcoming guys to me and to many others in our world and someone who has worked hard to improve energy performance through great innovation at Azon.  Our industry will absolutely miss him, and I will personally- great guy.  I will have him on my podcast before he gets too deep into his next phase of life!  Congrats Jerry!!

 

--  As I noted last week, I did sit in on an AIA forecast and it does connect a lot to the previous economic data we’ve heard including backlogs at architectural firms are strong and that 2023 should be positive in the commercial space.  Residential?  Look out.  And that includes the prediction that shower door installs will suffer as more and more homeowners tighten their belts thanks to inflation and interest rates slowing new builds.  Obviously, the shower door side is BIG in our space, so that’s a red flag to keep an eye out on.  There were a few other nuggets for commercial with the retrofit approach looking like it could weather a lot of storms, its numbers are strong and getting better and that forecast is close to hitting all-time best.  Bottom line as always though?  Stay focused on what you do, diversify those options, get more efficient and communicate.  That approach can overcome a ton.

 

--  I am soooo late to this but a great connection/follow on LinkedIn is Benji Bolick.  He is the “Door Dork” and his content is fabulous.  His Top Ten Fails of Doors in Vegas during GlassBuild was fantastic.  If you are on LinkedIn- see that post HERE and connect with him.  Sorry that I am like years behind on this stuff! 

 

--  Something to keep an eye on- the shortage of Diesel fuel is now starting to make news.  The shortages are more concentrated in a few areas of the US but if this grows this obviously affects our industry (and the entire economy) a great deal.  Most of our trucks, no matter where you are at in the chain run on Diesel.  Shortages and then the obvious price increase that comes with a supply chain crunch, will surely play a nasty role if this thing grows.  I am hoping maybe the fear here is either overdone or is addressed and improved on quickly.  But heads up none the less.

 

--  Last this week… Midterm election in the US and make sure you vote!  And if you are on the fence, the legendary Carl Christ of DFI, who in a past life was a serious music superstar did a Public Service Announcement on voting.  So if you need a boost, check out his post, watch that video and get to the polls.  Keep rocking Carl.. and slowly but surely I am going to get the whole story of “The Medflys” out to the masses!

 

LINKS of the WEEK

--  I love the chain store Wawa (Sheetz and Cumberland Farms in that category- all behind Buccee’s in the glass station/store/must stop rankings) but this promo went south…

 

--  Well at least this house had a ton of trick or treaters!  We surely did not have not for a while now.

 

--  Update on the Walleye competition controversy that I had on here a few weeks ago and we talked about on a previous podcast.

 

PROJECT of the WEEK

Country Glass is one of my favorites in the industry- great owners and team and have some of the best swag going (thank you for sharing some with me too!) – So this week’s spotlight on them- this is a small gig but looks great… glass and metal standing out nicely and I am sure once done the entire project is one for our world to be proud of.  Cheers to Brian Risinger, Joe Lambertson and everyone there who really do amazing things in our space and FOR our space.  Kudos!