Behind the Headlines

A topsy-turvy week in the forecast world… no rate cut (as expected) and new forecasts for the rest of 2025 released.  The AIA Consensus Forecast brings several predictions together and puts them all in one handy-dandy setup. Usually, that’s the fun of going through it and seeing who is predicting what.  This time, though, it was the headlines throughout the release that really threw me.  Ready for them?

No turnaround in sight for spending on nonresidential buildings

An economic slowdown is emerging 

A slowdown in key growth sectors

Focus returns to traditional nonresidential building sectors

Institutional sector facing its own headwinds

4 of the 5 of these above made me reach for the bottle of Pepto-Bismol and start chugging it like a Diet Dr. Pepper on a hot summer day.  Brutal.  However, when you look at the actual consensus, it’s not as dire as the headlines.  There are quite a few positive numbers in several categories. So taken as a whole, there’s more hope than the headline.  But I’ll let you all be the judge.  Check it out HERE.  And regardless, it just means we keep trucking, doing all we can in the smartest ways possible.

Elsewhere….

-- ICYMI- the latest “From the Fabricator” podcast is out! Guests were Brady Nails of MT Contracting and Mike DeFrank of Country Glass.  Everything from installing glass via helicopter to the latest trends was covered.  Two excellent and talented guys.  Thank you to all who have already checked it out, and thanks in advance to those who will soon!

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Thank you to FHC-Frameless Hardware Company for sponsoring this episode. 

-- This past week, I got to visit Momentum Glass in Houston, and I was utterly blown away. If it isn’t the best operation in our space, it’s darn close.  From the first moment I saw the main building, then walking through a smartly organized floor complete with state-of-the-art tracking measures, to the obvious positive culture (you catch the vibe when a plant has focused people), I was awestruck.  Kudos to Omar Maalouf and team on this amazing operation!  Plus, I had the bonus of running into a past co-worker- Suzanne Isbell.  That was very cool and had a fun few minutes reminiscing.  Glad she’s at a great place and doing well.

-- A few weeks ago, I taped a podcast with Junaid Saleem of CSG Talent, and that episode dropped this week… and Junaid got me going, especially on tariffs and the economy in the US and a global view.  So, I was a little more unfiltered than normal.  If you want to check it out, here’s the link: https://www.csgtalent.com/insights/podcast/standout-glazing-trends--skills-gaps-and-skills-first-hiring/  or search “Conversations with CSG” on your favorite podcast platform.  Thank you, Junaid and Christina Shiels, of CSG, for having me.

-- Last this week… it’s another entry into the Summer Q&A series and for this one I catch up with Brandon Bellegarde and Tyler Faulk of The Drafting Marketplace.  These two always bring energy and I like that they are working hard to bring fresh resources to our space.  Also, some really insightful stuff on my favorite subject of late- AI.

MAX: OK. I am thrilled to have Brandon and Tyler, you may know them as “the beards,“ at The Drafting Marketplace. Great people! First and foremost, haven't talked to you in a while. How's business, how's life over at the drafting marketplace and all your concerns?

BRANDON: Businesses going well, we're growing. We added another sales rep and we have some pretty exciting stuff in the wings, so we're excited to tell people about it, so business is going well.

TYLER: We kind of mentioned it before we started here as far as the dog days of summer and the construction outlook. It's moderate, if you will.  So we're dealing with that kind of stuff like everybody. But overall, it's good. And hopefully we're coming in handy for contractors and drafters in those times where there’s a little bit of a lull.

MAX: Perfect. You guys are always coming up with new offerings. Anything you can share with me and the audience on what's coming down the pike from you guys?

BRANDON: We anticipate introducing something that truly will change the entire commercial construction industry fundamentally in a good way. We hope that we can make that announcement by the beginning of January. We're working pretty hard, pushing hard. We had a meeting earlier today with our team to walk through what we're doing. We can't tell you specifically what it is because technologically we don't want to reveal too much until the time comes.

TYLER: Brandon mentioned industry changing. We truly think it is, it's going to cover a lot of the industry, not necessarily just glazing. Our big focus is the pre-construction phase of the industry. And so that's definitely where it should make a massive, massive impact.

MAX: Wow, I can't wait. I am sure it's going to be great and I look forward to hearing it. Last question, you two are always ahead of the curve, and this is another question I ask quite a bit because the interest in it is huge. What are your takes on AI, - Artificial Intelligence.

 BRANDON: Well, there are forecasts that project that in five years, a hundred million jobs that exist right now will not exist. We're currently in an environment where we have $37 trillion in national debt. As a nation, we have to increase our GDP. To do that, we have to increase our automation. And, to do that, we have to increase our energy output by something like 18 times what we're producing right now. In order to keep up with China, and in order to produce that energy, we have to spin up power plants and AI factories, which are just data centers, across the country, and that typically would take 10 to 15 years to do. But we're seeing companies right now, billion-dollar companies that are spinning them up in a year and staffing them with some of the people who work in positions that are going to be removed from society. I think we're going to see a massive disruption in a lot of the white-collar positions that exist now.

A lot of the information, heavy logic, heavy decision-making positions, I think will be phased out, and I think we're going to see a lot of automation in factories and even in construction. I think that automation will be because of AI. So, it's kind of a mixed bag, but I think overall, we will see quite an advance in our quality of life as human beings. We‘re currently entering the AI industrial revolution and we can't stop it. So, the best thing you can do is make certain you know how to use it.

TYLER: I think that there are a lot of experts in a lot of industries, whose jobs are going to get a lot easier with automation brought about by AI. And eventually, yes, there's going to be some automation that takes some jobs in the near future, nobody knows how quickly, but I think it's going to help in the interim. AI is going to help these experts be a lot more efficient and I think we'll have a little bit of time as a society, as a world, if you will, to figure out how to bend our knees for softer landing with AI and incorporate it more so than just get taken over by it. So that's kind of my positive spin on it I guess. I'm just hoping that it's more positive than it is negative and scary. But yeah, like Brandon said, it's coming. There’s nothing much we can do about it, except to absorb it and find ways to have it help us.

MAX: I like what both of you said, and sticking the landing, I think, is the big key.  You’ve got to figure it out, and then you've got to stick the landing. So once again, you two are always ahead of the game, and I wish you continued success. Can't wait for the news to come out soon, and hopefully, I get to break it on the blog or at least a week after.  Thanks for doing this!

LINKS of the WEEK

Fascinating.  A Bull Moose is blocking a country trail, and no one knows why, and he’s not moving!

https://apnews.com/article/moose-trail-closed-adirondacks-new-york-c5d2332038ead4c127135ade1010ee13

The new Fantastic Four movie is getting strong reviews and is noted as not needing insight into all the other superhero stories.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/25/entertainment/fantastic-four-mcu-movie-no-guide

And once again… Dogs for the win!  This time with a baseball twist in Philadelphia.

https://www.goodnewsnetwork.org/philadelphia-phillies-new-service-dog-is-instant-celebrity-and-will-support-a-veteran-after-season-of-training/ 

PROJECT of the WEEK

We are in the decorative realm this week, and one of the all-time leaders of this has been GGI. Starting with iconic Harlem Hospital and going from there, these folks have been putting amazing stuff out there. This week, it’s a project in Minnesota at the Rochester Athletic Club. Layered designs and custom colors can be challenges, but this one delivered!  Kudos to David Balik and company on a job well done, as well to Ford Metro Glass for the install.  Good stuff, making our space stand out!

Chips off the Old Block

Fun new podcast episode is up!  The latest From the Fabricator features two individuals whose Fathers were in the business, and they have applied the lessons learned from them to make significant strides in their own careers.  I start with Brady Nails of MT Contracting in Montana.  Extensive conversation that had a ton of interesting nuggets, including training and recruitment, along with insight on AI in the industry.  Then Mike DeFrank joined me.  Mike just landed at Country Glass in Dallas, and it was great to get his perspective on various aspects of the business, including business development in a softer market and working in all aspects of our space.  Two really talented individuals who will be players in our space for a long time —and who knows, maybe their kids will follow in their footsteps too!  THANK YOU, as always, for checking it out.  I appreciate it!

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Thank you to FHC-Frameless Hardware Company for sponsoring this episode.

Elsewhere…

-- So I made my prediction on the ABI and said it would be 45.6. I wasn’t too far off, as it clocked in at 46.8 – so I was almost there. Knew it would be down, though, but happy it wasn’t as low as my prediction.  There was some decent news: Inquiries had their best month since last October and have now had two months in a row.  That perking up is a positive, and while it’ll take a bit to affect our market, it’s still excellent to see.  Also this week, Dodge released “construction starts” and non-residential had a 39% jump- Hotels/motels had a nice month, and that’s a segment that had been flagging for a while, and education had a good past 30 days as well. However, temper some of that enthusiasm, as the majority of the overall gain was for manufacturing locations and data centers.  Analysts still have concerns about economic instability, pricing, and policy issues. So the beat goes on….

-- You, I am sure, have seen the Coldplay concert “kiss cam” that caught a CEO and his HR person in a terrible spot… well, their crisis management team is working hard, and this reply they had online is pretty brilliant. https://x.com/astronomerio/status/1948890827566317712?s=46&t=Avt1pFMey6MQYWvpyassnw

-- Last this week… Time to check out what’s cooking on the aluminum side of our world in my Summer Q&A series.  I was lucky to get Chris Schultz of Kawneer.  What’s interesting here is that everyone I have talked to so far in this series, I knew and had relationships with.  This time with Chris, it was the first extended conversation of any kind, so it was nice to get to know him. He is a talented and sharp person.  Really impressive.

MAX: Okay, Chris, thank you so much for doing this summer Q&A. My first question for you is, how's it going? How's life? I know the industry is always an adventure. You hanging in there?

CHRIS: It's going pretty well. It's been a very busy year for us at Kawneer.  We've had basically five years of new product development projects coming to fruition over the last 12 months. So, we've been really busy getting products out to the market, some new products, which is really exciting to close that side of development. But it's also a huge challenge. Now we're into the promotion and marketing and meeting with customers to make sure that they understand these products so the work doesn't stop just because we finished some of our R&D of these new products.

MAX: No doubt. So, speaking of the new products, I assume some of them are probably the hot things you've got going on. What's trending on the streets in Kawneer world?

CHRIS: On the curtain wall side we've launched 1600 UT SS, which is our ultra thermal screw spline system. It’s a semi-unitized system so you can build ladders for faster construction, it has high thermal performance, and we packed a ton of features into the new platform. So that's a huge product launch for us that was years in the making that is now out on the market.

On the storefront side, we've got a new hurricane impact storefront, and that's IR 521, which we've been launching in phases over the last 9 months as we receive Florida product approval. That's another brand new platform with a ton of features, installation capabilities, and certified testing requirements. That has been keeping us very busy, but we're excited to begin pushing that out into the marketplace.

And then on the window side, we’re soon adding to our OptiQ platform with an Offset Fixed Projected window. Visually, it mimics a single hung window, but the lower lite projects instead of slides. And I know our Window product team is really excited about that one and going to meet with developers and school districts to promote that product. So really everyone across our product management team has a different project that they get to go and not only launch this year, but then go out and promote to customers and architects.

MAX: I love it. And I give you credit, that's a lot of balls in the air. Congrats on that. Last question. I'm very curious if you have an opinion or not on artificial intelligence (AI). It's starting to seem like it's growing a little more in our industry, but I'm curious with you, especially as you've just mentioned, having been through all these new product launches and with so much going on, what are your thoughts on AI and our world?

CHRIS: So from a personal standpoint, just working in our industry, I think there's huge potential in a product development marketing standpoint. Just aggregating a lot of information, building things like product requirements for our engineers, building briefs for our marketing team. So basically, as a product manager, I can put a lot of thoughts down on paper and have AI as an assistant to kind of enhance my work, deliver documents to different teams that are more organized or more succinct and can sort of send them off with all the relevant information for a certain project. So that's a personal use case. How we can we take the first steps to utilizing AI in our industry? Unfortunately, in building materials, we're a little slower than the technology industry. So I think it's still to be seen how it will be integrated and adapted to our specific industry, how it might be used to projects or be fed really specific data about different product lines to help with designs, estimates and takeoffs.

I think there's unbelievable potential there. Just not sure exactly how long it will take for that to come to us.  I think it is coming as the tools are being developed, but for now they're being used to enhance individual’s jobs as sort of an assistant. It'll be interesting to see how it's adapted to be more useful industry-wide.

 MAX: Appreciate that and that and makes a lot of sense. Keep up the good work. You’ve got a lot going on. This summer is probably flying by for you.

CHRIS: Yes, I know. I feel like summer's already over, but we're in the thick of it for sure.

MAX: Wonderful. Keep it all going and thank you so much for doing this.

LINKS of the WEEK

-- Door failure at a Zoo in the Lion’s den ends in bad news for one of the animals.

https://www.nbc4i.com/news/local-news/columbus-zoo/usda-cites-columbus-zoo-for-failure-of-door-that-resulted-in-lions-death/

 -- Interesting hotel set up that I HAVE seen in my travels but evidently many have not since the story of this went viral.

https://www.newsweek.com/airline-worker-arrives-hotel-unprepared-view-never-seen-2097678

 -- Pretty cool story.  The last living client of Frank Lloyd Wright and the home he designed.

https://www.vpm.org/npr-news/npr-news/2025-07-23/whats-it-like-to-have-frank-lloyd-wright-design-your-house-this-101-year-old-knows

PROJECT of the WEEK

Architectural Glass & Aluminum (AGA) is in the spotlight this week as we head to the West Coast for a jaw-dropper.  This is the Andrew & Erna Viterbi Family Vision Research Center at the University of California, San Diego. All I know is when I look at this picture, I see a perfect mix of glass in an incredible design.  Kudos to NBBJ for some remarkable architecture, and obviously AGA knocked the install out of the park.  Hearing GlassFab fabricated the glass via Vitro, so props to them too! Excellent work, all!

New & Exciting!

You may have seen the news lately that the NGA announced the formation of a new event- GFAB- NGA Glass Fabricator Conference™, coming to Chicago next April.  This is big. There has always been a gap in the market for a comprehensive Fabricator gathering, similar to BEC for glaziers, and now we’ve got one.  Previous events like GPAD were fabulous, but this event takes those necessary steps further in offering a more complete opportunity for the fabrication side of our business to learn and grow.  HERE is the official news on the event, and if you are a glass fabricator, get ready to be there to help push you and your operation further.

Elsewhere…

-- The next Architectural Billings Index drops this Wednesday.  Last month, it had ticked up to 47.2 from the previous month's dreadful 43.2.  My prediction?  45.6.  Remember 50 is break even and we haven’t seen that often in the last 2 years.

-- Saw a note online that one of my favorites- Tish Oye of Glassworks in Washington State is calling it a day after 55 years in business.  Years ago, as I was building up this blog, Tish was kind enough to reach out with her support and some cool links.  She consistently delivered outstanding work and made a significant impact in her region and within this field.  Best of luck, Tish, going forward!!

-- Crow eating time.  My pal Lyle Shimazu has pounded me for years that the Portland Airport was the best around.  I have pushed back constantly.  Well, the 2025 ranks are out, and Lyle’s influence must be strong as PDX took the top spot.  Stunning.  As for the rest of the top 10…

10- Detroit- my home airport, and it should be MUCH higher.

9- Salt Lake City- the fresh remodel there helping?

8-Indy- Been years since I’ve been there- so no opinion

7- ABQ- I’ve never been to this one- though ABQ will always play a role for me since it was a significant part of the best TV show ever- “Breaking Bad”

6- Providence- Kinda surprised this is as high as it is…

5- Seattle Paine- not SeaTac… I have only flown into SeaTac- so I defer to my friends in the Pacific Northwest on this one.

4- MSP- Hey, I love love love Minnesota Nice… but folks… no way is that airport is 4th best.

3- DCA- Way too high for this one- packed corridors and terrible bathroom setup

2-Long Beach- small and sharp airport.  It's a bit hard to compare to the bigger ones on the list, though.

And as noted, PDX/Portland was 1st…. Good work Lyle....

Last this week… The Summer Q&A series heads to California and to an iconic specialty glass fabricator.  I caught up with Kirk Johnson, CEO at Pulp Studio.  Kirk is a supreme talent, and he delivered a lot of insight that I found extremely valuable.

MAX: It's been a long time. Been a long time. You're my first guest from California. How's life out there? How's business? How are you guys holding up? 

KIRK: It's been bumpy. There’s a lot of uncertainty on the West Coast—between the wildfires, political tension, and ongoing immigration issues, it’s a complex environment. These external pressures definitely impact day-to-day operations and the mindset of the workforce.

MAX: How about operationally? Business wise, you’ve got great products and setup.

KIRK: So just a couple of high points. One, as you know and some don't, Pulp has a myriad of processes and or products or equipment that very few others have across the country. So the bulk of our business is outside of California right now and the east coast is fairly strong for us, which creates some challenges, especially on the freight side.  We also have bending capabilities, kiln slumping, that narrows the playing field. So we do see even in this softer climate, lots of activity on the custom bending side. We can do chemically strengthened, non-true radius multilayer, very high end.

I think a few things are obstacles. Our sales process, because we drive down through the A&D market for specification is a very elongated process. So, patience is a virtue. There was a time when a handshake would ensure that you would get that job.  Now, unfortunately, if we don't front load with developmental costs or do an NDA with some sort of contractual obligation, a lot of stuff gets farmed out to China, where they take a mockup and then they try to duplicate or replicate. That's a big part of the challenge right now. The industry has also become more litigious. We’re dealing with stricter contracts, detailed inspection requirements, and tighter tolerances that go well beyond ASTM standards. That’s why we’ve had to bring in full-time technical personnel—to help manage expectations and ensure clients understand exactly what they’re getting. It's a necessary step, even if the cost recovery can be difficult.

MAX: How’s the market?

KIRK: The economic climate in general, I would say is pensive. We have a strong pipeline that is moving slower than we would like. GCs are holding tight and money, cash is king, lots of downward pricing pressures and “oh, well, we want you to do it and you guys look great on the mockup, but I got this price over here for X percent less,” et cetera.  So there's more of that than typical. There are quite a few changes on the A&D side with EPDs and sustainability. This may be a little controversial but there's some people in our space that are claiming to have EPDs that are self-created and not third party verified. So that becomes a challenge in the architectural world that says, “oh good, I can check that box,” but it's not real. Third party verification for EPDs is very expensive, and Pulp is very committed and has been since its inception on “green.”  A Three and a half million dollars solar investment where half of our consumption is coming from ourselves. Recycling glass, water, trash, paper, plastic, is very important to us. Plus, there's a secondary plan to add more panels, solar panels to try and be completely self-sufficient and not pulling from the grid. 

MAX: Pulp has always been out and front and different than the norm.

KIRK: That’s definitely part of our identity. Internally, we’re clear about what we offer and how we work. Externally, though, I think there’s still room to improve how we communicate that. I still think there's some question marks out in the marketplace. As we know, losing one of our founders (Bernard Lax) was a major moment, it's been four years next month. 

MAX: It's amazing that it's been four years because it feels like it was just yesterday. 

KIRK: Yes, right. Super-fast, time flies.  In the aftermath, we had to ask ourselves: do we stay independent or align with another organization? There were definitely rumors. But the answer was clear—Linda Nishimoto Lax remains the owner, and I’ve been running the business for eight years now. In spite of a lot of naysayers and skepticism, hearing “Oh, they won't make it”. We’re not going anywhere, and every year since then, we’ve won national or industry awards. We’ve continued to push the envelope with custom work. That speaks volumes about the team and the direction we’re headed.

MAX: The toughest thing is the runway to get projects. You listed a lot of different challenges, but the fact that you may have to wait 12, 18, 24 months and then deal with it and probably have to re-quote it three or four times, that's tough. 

KIRK: It is. Two great examples: we’re currently working on a flagship Rolex project in New York—it’s a seven-figure job that’s been in motion for three years. And here in LA, we’ve done five of the seven Metro stations being prepped for the Olympics. The first of those began four years ago. We just completed production. That kind of timeline is the norm in our world.

MAX: Pulpstudio.com is the website, correct? 

KIRK: Correct, it’s going through a revamp, so be patient with us. We're doing some additional changes to our website and marketing and some things like that, being a little bit more transparent than historical, but yeah, that's where you can reach us. 

MAX: Well, if this is a revamp that you're going through, it's looking darn good right now. 

KIRK: The one thing that we really are able to focus on is projects we've previously done that other people said, “oh no, that can't be done.” Or it was tried with someone else and then came back to us.  Like a lot of companies, we wrap a project and immediately move on to the next—without stopping to capture the result. That’s something we’re actively working on.

Thank you, Kirk!  Keep up the great work out there!

LINKS of the WEEK

-- I don’t understand the “running of the bulls” but I am fascinated by the pictures of the entire event. https://apnews.com/photo-gallery/photos-san-fermin-running-of-bulls-spain-pamplona-cb13e4d8fe63451a66a48b72694a7e91

-- Wild story- a “missing cat” T shirt and the phone number on it https://www.upi.com/Odd_News/2025/07/18/canada-T-shirt-missing-cat-phone-number/6941752860361/

-- Dogs are the best- lesson number 65,982,999.  And this one is more comical than normal. https://news.yahoo.com/news/hiker-alpine-crevasse-rescued-chihuahua-092446341.html

PROJECT of the WEEK

To the Windy City and a really, really cool-looking project from Skyline Glass. This is 11 W Quincy Court.  The description was “ …enhance the building’s new focal entryway with clean light, openness, and color.” And for sure, they accomplished that and then some! The color and texture are something to see.  4240 Architecture had the incredible design, and Skyline took it and ran.  Congrats to all involved, including my friend Vipul Bhagat, on a job well done. More insight on this one can be found here: https://skyline.glass/case_study/11-w-quincy-court-gsa/