Predictions for 2023

Last week was easy.  Reviewing predictions is a walk in the park compared to making them.  But here we are, and this is what you expect from me, so the crystal ball is shined up and ready to go.  My money back guaranteed predictions for our space in the year ahead.

 

Imports are back-  Covid was the obvious disruptor and then the supply chain nightmares followed so the folks that were importing were held back.  Now as we head into 2023 that approach is cleared and starting to pop.  Obviously importing is a touchy subject but my prediction here is that more and more folks will be active in bringing in things they can’t get on-shore… so whichever side you are on in this deal, prepare accordingly!

 

Residential players to push into commercial- This is big, both employees (workforce, project managers etc.) and companies that were focused on residential are going to switch sides and come to the commercial realm.  Residential operators will start to poke around and look to find a hole that they can jump in on the commercial side to keep things rolling.  So for some reading this blog you now have foreign competition AND residential competition now added to your mix.  Sorry. 

 

VIG- Yeah I am biased.  I admit it.  But this product is going to hit the ground running hard in 2023.  Energy demands need it, and the product is out there with some great people involved like Michael Spellman, many at Vitro Architectural Glass, and Dave Cooper to name a few.  With some codes already changed and others expected to be, VIG is going to dip the toe in and before too long the entire foot then legs will be in the water.  Exciting for our industry too! 

 

More consolidation- I actually thought a year or two ago we would see break-ups, but it’s never happened, and we are still getting interested parties in our space looking to gobble.  So look for more companies to be bought up and combined/consolidated into bigger players.  Sometimes this works and sometimes it does not, but this is a trend that will pick up even more steam in 23.

 

Unitized /Modular- More on both.  Our labor issues are severe and while neither makes a huge help in labor, they can make a dent and also have some controllability play.  We’ve seen unitized continue to grow and that will not slow up, but now seeing more modular come into play could integrate even more of what we manufacture and install.  So be aware!

 

Bonus- The SHOWS KEEP GROWING- 2022 was a great bounce back for our industry events and 2023 will just expand that.  BEC looks to be amazing (NOTE NOTE NOTE- Tuesday,  Day 2 of BEC, a session on ways to add labor, address mentorship gaps, recruitment and more is scheduled- do not make plans to leave until AFTER THAT SESSION!) and events like Top Glass Canada and TEXpo should be great again. And wow, GlassBuild has a tough act to follow but the energy there in 2022 WILL transfer on to 2023.  So mark your schedules and be there!

 

So there ya go… we’ll see what happens and what does not- no matter what we’ve got the year in front of us so let’s get at it!

 

Elsewhere…

 

--  One of my all-time favorites is Rick Alexander the brilliant National Sales Manager of Tom Brown Inc.  Rick dropped a blog this week on his company celebrating 40 years in the tape conversion business and the background he covered was a great read.  Check it out HERE and congrats to everyone at Tom Brown on this anniversary and the continuation of being in business overall since 1936!

 

--  A big Guardian Glass deal made the news recently with the acquisition of Vortex Glass in Florida. Smart move by Guardian Glass to build into the laminated side because folks Laminated glass is very popular and growing.  This was an under the radar deal that makes me think more may be coming.  Nice combo of companies and congrats to all involved. 

 

--  Also congrats to the tremendous Josh Burg and his team at Glass Enterprises on the launch of their new website.  Really well done, easy to get around and smart in the way they broke down each area of the business they served.  Only thing missing were the beauty shots of Josh and his team from the last site- maybe those will be coming soon!  Seriously though rebuilding a site is a battle and kudos to GEI for crushing it!

 

--  Last this week… airport rankings.  I have gone back and forth with the Hawaiian legend Lyle Shimazu on this for years, with him saying Portland is so much better than I think it is.  Anyway, the latest formal rankings came out at the end of the year and some surprises…

For large airports your top 5 were San Fran, Atlanta, Minneapolis, Detroit and Phoenix.  I love seeing Detroit on there because it IS a great airport.  I have no issues with the list, though Minneapolis can be like running a marathon depending on where you land.  Worst bigs were O’Hare, Miami, Ft Lauderdale, JFK and Newark.   Also I am good with those- all absolute nightmares in so many ways. Now on to medium sized the top 5 were Sacramento, San Diego, San Jose, San Antonio, and PORTLAND. Lyle obviously got to the voters and man I love the people in San Antonio but I don’t think your airport is top 5.  San Diego is awesome.    Worst medium were Dallas Love (no!) Austin (yes, an absolute nightmare) Cleveland and Washington Reagan. Maybe I missed something, but I like Love Field in Dallas.  Anyway there ya go.. these were from the Wall Street Journal and their experts and I just love sharing.  

 

LINKS of the WEEK

 

I did the Disney Cruise and loved it but I know many who do other Cruises and the attraction is the food- well on some lines that’s changing… look out! 

Amazon dumping its “Smile” program that benefitted charities.  It didn’t donate a lot but every bit helps and this sucks.

 

Us glass people get blamed for a lot- but we’ve never pulled something as bad as this.  Lights stuck on at school for over a year!  Issues with turning them off!

 

PROJECT of the WEEK

Dynamic duo this week in this section… the always awesome Beth Hockett and incredible company Bendheim get the spotlight.  This was on Beth’s LinkedIn feed, and it is sharp!  Beth said it best in her post so best to just print verbatim:

18' tall continuous Bendheim Channel Glass. Double glazed with translucent insulation at designated areas to meet Pitkin County's thermal performance requirements. Pinnacle Glass did a great job on the install bringing Charles Cunniffe Architects vision to life.

 

Kudos to everyone on this stunner! (Though those handrails could've/should've been glass too? But that's my bias!)

Reviewing '22

Predictions can be tough but each year I do them and each year I follow up to see how I fared.  So, before we dig into 2023, time to take a look back at my thoughts on 2022.

Here are last year's calls and whether I won, lost, or tied.

Yes- Interior Growth this year- I believe this was a win though it depends on your area of the country.  Interiors grew- no doubt, but that return to office was not nationwide and remodels still were a bit slower.  I’ll say this is a tie.

More 8mm- This one did not grow as much as I thought and so I’ll sadly take an “L” here but I think the trend remains and 8mm in the commercial setting is here to stay. 

Rough waters for some- While we had some choppy waters there wasn’t enough to take people under- which is great news overall and I’ll be happy to accept a bad call on this one.  Still we are not out of the woods on worry, but for 2022, it did not happen, thankfully.

Code Crunch- Did not see the code crunch but is that because of people like the NGA Superhero team led by Urmilla Sowell?  And the codes we did see were smart positive ones too.  I think there was a push but we have gotten so much better at understanding and adapting it did not make us crazy like efforts in the past. 

More than 1 big deal is coming- And I got this one right… a few big deals this past year and I think the aftershocks from those deals affect our space this year.  And not every aftershock is a bad one either- more investments, more focus, diversification etc. could all be in the offing thanks to new owners and fresh perspectives.  

Next week, the fearless prognostications for 2023!

 

Elsewhere…

 

--  A reminder if you missed the opening podcast to 2023, I’ll link it again below.  This one turned out to be very popular on the audio download side, guessing folks like exercising to the soothing inspirational words of Tom O’Malley eh?  Anyway, aside from Tom joining me and diving deep into the industry, I was also honored to have Arty Feles, President of CR Laurence on.  He was amazing in laying down all the good CRL has happening now.  And last but certainly not least, Sam Olson oof J&A Glass held court and his industry path has had people talking.  Good stuff!  Thanks to those who have listened/watched and if you want to catch it- the VIDEO version is here and AUDIO here- along with audio being on Apple, Spotify and wherever you get your podcasts from!

 

--  Big news from recent glass industry MVP runner up Chris Phillips.  It came out at the start of the year that Chris has joined forces with Brandon Nicastro and Chance Forman at GCS Glass & Mirror.  GCS is an awesome organization and what Brandon and Chance have done there is incredibly impressive.  Now looping in Chris and his location in California (the 5^th for GCS) is another tremendous move.  Chris is a great person, and I am happy for him and thrilled about this combo- congrats guys!

 

--  Also some big personnel moves and kudos needed.  Two of the most talented women to run through our space have taken new major roles.  Leigh Anne Mays was a superstar at Guardian Glass and after being at Masonite, she’s returned to our side of the industry with the exciting new Naverra glass fab facility in Connecticut.  A great fit bringing Leigh Anne’s experience to match the product and performance of Naverra.  Nice.  And former podcast guest Kelly Whittingham has signed on with Ubiquitous Energy.  Huge get there by Ubiquitous as Kelly is spectacular and big time respected in the marketplace.  A fresh disruptive product being pushed by someone with Kelly’s skills is a win.  Congrats to all!

 

--  And I assume you may see these folks and many many more at BEC this March!  And now is the time to register as the doors are open and the link is online and ready for you.  BEC is celebrating its 25^th Anniversary and there’s a lot of interesting stuff planned that go beyond this being an incredible learning and networking event.  So, get your trip locked in now and register HERE!  If you are unfamiliar with BEC, feel free to ping me and I’ll give you the details. 

 

--  At the start of the NFL season, I picked the Ravens to beat the Packers in the Super Bowl.  Well the Packers are out and the Ravens without Lamar Jackson are not winning it.  So I get a do-over right?  LOL.  I’m going Kansas City over Philadelphia.  But I do think every Hollywood writer wants a Buffalo Bills win just because of the story that would be.  We’ll see!

 

--  Last this week… the terrific Bill Sullivan of Brin Glass (a past glass industry MVP by the way) had a great tweet with some harrowing video of folks delivering some big glass.  Yikes.  Check it out HERE to see it… 

 

LINKS of the WEEK

I am really into learning about AI and in some cases what it can replace and what it cannot.

 

From the “love to see it / karma” files

 

Another bizarre legal case for the ages!

 

PROJECT of the WEEK

Quick note- on my project of the week from the end of the year, I missed a credit for AZA US on the glass and building envelope.  Tremendous work- to see it CLICK HERE

 

On to this week- Virginia Glass Products had this one posted and it was a project in progress in Glen Allen, VA with American Door & Glass Inc.  13/16” laminated for a canopy and looking fabulous all the way around. Kudos to my good pal James Wright and the team there for the great work they are doing and props to American Door & Glass on a successful install!  Looking good everyone. 

New Year, New Pod and Lots of News

Happy New Year!  We are off and running into 2023!  Kicking it off in style with a great new podcast featuring three very interesting people all doing good things in our space. First up massive heavy hitter in our world in Arty Feles, President of CR Laurence.  CRL is one of the most important companies in our space and a leader through and through and spending time with Arty gave me (and you when you listen) great perspective on their approaches and bright future.  Then on to the tremendous Tom O’Malley of Clover Architectural Products.  Tom’s company is making moves, so we find out about that and also his ways of doing things which has obviously been very successful.  I end this month with Sam Olson of J &A Glass in Minnesota. Younger and energetic guy and the sort of future force we’ll be hearing a lot more from in our industry.  So please get the year off right and check it out!!

Video

Audio – And audio always available on Apple, Spotify, Google and more!

 

--  At the end of 2022 our industry wrapped up the International Year of Glass in style with an amazing session at the United Nations in New York City.  Glass Magazine had an excellent rundown of it HERE but I also wanted to point out how amazingly cool it was for two of our own that had major roles during the event.  First Urmilla Sowell appearing at the UN and having an impact is something that just makes me beam with joy.  Urmilla worked hard to make this all happen but from a personal level, coming from her youth in Guyana and now speaking at the UN?  That is absolutely awesome.  She said to me that “Island girls don’t speak at the UN” Well this one did!  Way to go Urmilla!   Also in that same category, Katy Devlin, one of the most talented humans I have ever known, moderating a crucial panel there and also landing memorable quote after memorable quote is incredible.  Katy showed the world her skillset and made our space and industry proud. Congrats to both Urmilla and Katy and props to EVERYONE who took a part in the IYOG effort of 2022.  Now though we don’t stop… Glass and Glazing Advocacy Days return this spring, so let’s keep banging the drum for our product of choice!

 

--  The Architectural Glass and Metal Certification Council (AGMCC) announced six new members of its board before the end of the year and it was a nice mix of talent. One of my all-time favorites made the cut too in Kyle Sharp of Sharp Glass in San Antonio.  Kyle is brilliant person who really “gets” what our industry can be and I think he’ll do a great job here.  AGMCC oversees the extremely important North American Contractor Certification (NACC) and Architectural Glass and Metal Technician (AGMT) programs.  These programs are making a difference in the way we are viewed from the outside and improving our quality and approaches.  Jeff Dalaba, Ben Beeler and team have done a fantastic job leading this and this board and Kyle will continue that effort.

 

--  The last Architectural Billings Index for 2022 was down again... so we now know that the trend line is here and the predictions from people like Connor Lokar are looking true. 2023 will be solid, 2024 looks dicey. Now the question is how long will this negative trend go?  Some analysts are saying 8 months, others more.  For me, I tend to be more negative, so I am in the one-year camp. Now this doesn’t mean business just goes away, it just means it’s going to get slower, which means if you haven’t been diversifying your approach, communicating up and down the chains, and working to make your business the best it can be, time is running out.  So hop to it…. 

 

--  Big time kudos to Kevin Roth of Privacy Glass Solutions and the team at Vitro along with Michael Spellman of VIG Technologies.  These folks won acclaim in the year end Building Design + Construction Awards. Kevin and his folks in Florida are building an absolute monster there with some excellent specialty products. Meanwhile Vitro was sharp and on the spot by working with Michael on the VIG Vacu-Max product that is a gamechanger in that space. With a showstopping product and the flow of the future pushing towards higher performance, this award is just the start of the recognition coming to Vitro.  Congrats to all on the awards!!

 

--  Also kudos to Viracon and Halio after picking up some serious “best in show” recognition at the gigantic Consumer Electronics Show last week.  Not often does a glass related party appear on that stage, but to come away with people raving and winning awards?  That’s massive.  Great for them, their product and our industry.  Awesome news for sure!

 

--  Bummer on this one. Chuck Knickerbocker of Allegion, a great guy, past industry MVP, and really one of the main tech figures in our space ended his blogging career at the end of 2022.  Chuck was doing his Field Notes blog since 2009 and it was always a must read.  Chuck was able to deftly mix technical terms into great prose, and always gave you a takeaway or three to work with.  Chuck is just stopping his blog though, he’s still working and will be out and about, but his online messaging will be missed!

 

--  Last this week… what to look for in the next blogs from me.  Next week, my review of the 2022 predictions I made a year ago.  How did I do? We’ll find out. Then in the following week, my fearless predictions for 2023.  Plus, more news to catch up on (including a certain recent MVP runner up with news) and more! 

 

LINKS of the WEEK

A few bears using a doggy door to try and enter a home in British Columbia.  I wonder if it was Rich Porayko’s place?

And another Bear story- this one swiping Chick-fil-A… good taste that Bear

 

This a bonkers story about Pulte homes, twitter, and bots- why is this flying under the radar???

 

PROJECT of the WEEK

The rock star Melanie Dettmer of NGA gets the kudos to start the year as the project of the week is one that she saw while on vacation, noted, and then did the research and shared to the world.  It is also a very moving and emotional piece which is important too.  This is the New England Holocaust Memorial and it is obviously very special.  Here’s the link to Mel’s LinkedIn post which provides all the right sentiment and detail! Congrats to all that worked on this and thank you Mel for sharing! 

2022 MVP and Year end One on One Special Podcast

2022.  Get ready to enter this one into the finished column.  But before we do that there’s quite a bit to cover on my last scheduled blog post of the year.  First off, my year ending traditional “one on one” podcast with an industry influencer.  Last year was Mr. Don Friese.  This year its Steve Weidner of NSG Pilkington.  Steve is a legend in our space and our talk covered a ton of items including his years in the industry, supply chain, new tech, next steps and his ability to run into celebrities (which I do think he even sandbagged me there too- as even at glasstec he was hanging out with Japan’s World Cup Soccer team).  Great and important man in our world- check it out on VIDEO or on AUDIO and as always wherever you listen to your podcasts.

 

Then next up… it’s my annual Glass Industry MVP (and runners up) award.  Since 2013 I have bestowed this honor on some of the best of the best in our space, with a goal of always having new people mentioned each year.  To date I’ve noted 50 people and companies and this year 4 more make the list.  What I take into account are people or companies that support the industry as a whole, go above and beyond in those efforts, are great ambassadors overall in order further our mission.  In addition, innovation and education plays a role too.  This award comes from me alone, though many people do ping me to nominate deserving folks and I always listen, consider, and appreciate.  So, without further delay, let’s get to it!

 

2022- Runner’s Up

 

Stanley Yee- Dow.  When I realized that Stanley had never been on any of these lists I was stunned and embarrassed.  How could I miss him?  So this is almost a lifetime achievement nod as much as his continued efforts to make our industry better.  In that esteemed past Stanley played a crucial role in the GANA-NGA merger and going forward he continued to be a person who pushed innovation and collaboration at every turn.  Also a show or event within our world is not the same unless you see that classic Stanley smile.  Great man who cares a ton and backs it up always raising a hand to help.  Stanley my apologies for not mentioning you earlier!

 

Chris Phillips- Showcase ShowerDoors and Shower Door Pros on Facebook.  Chris is not only a strong businessman and inventor (more on that in a second) but his founding of the Shower Door Pros community on Facebook was a huge breakthrough in building collaboration in our space.  There are bigger forums out there but none that bring the sense of family that the Shower Door Pros have.  Every Wednesday night these folks gather and talk- and in one hour everyone gets better. I’ve been lucky to hop on a couple of these and they are just awesome opportunities for fellowship and growth.  On the inventor side, Chris has created amazing products to make the installers life easier and more efficient and he never stops hustling on that end.  A tremendous and genuine person, I am thrilled that I somehow ended up in the Chris Phillips camp.

 

Frameless Hardware Company- FHC- Hard to have a better year than these guys eh?  From a business side their growth has been dynamic (additional locations, manufacturing and the latest acquisition of Morse) and important to keep people ahead of supply chain crunches.  They’ve innovated to make people more efficient and they’ve supported and really pushed hard on items like MyGlassClass to ensure the glazier gets the best online education available in the market today.  Chris Hanstad and Barry Sutherland and team continue to always be active nationally and their folks like Danny Donahue who step up to support the industry during crucial NGA meetings.  Add in people like my pal Jeff Ziesche who proudly represents them and never misses a chance to promote NGA, GlassBuild etc. and this is a winner all the way around.  

Three fabulous and important runners up.  

But now it’s time to crown the 2022 MVP.

 

That would be…

 

Jodi Martinez of AllStar Glass.  Jodi is amazing and absolutely one of the coolest people out there.  She has slowly but surely become an absolute force in our industry and her approach and personality are a breath of fresh air.  Jodi is always learning, always collaborating and always putting her words into action.  One huge example this year was her pushing a “Trades Night” in her community.  We all know WE NEED to attract more people and youth to our space- events like the one Jodi supported are a great way to get there.  In addition, Jodi plays a great role on the NGA Board, is active at every NGA meeting (while getting a ton of her team involved too- spreading that knowledge and education) and she happens to be an amazing host of events too as she rocked the GEF this past fall making a certain host of the BEC (ahem) a bit nervous because- dang she is good. Very good.  Jodi and her husband Dan have a top-notch business (and note- I am huge fan of Dan as well) that really makes our industry look good. (AllStar installs some beautiful and challenging projects)  Plus this year the women in glass and fenestration movement took a major step and I think Jodi is one of the most important faces in that effort going forward.  She’s stepping up even before she’s called. No doubt to me that Jodi is a hustler day in day out and our space is better for it.  So Jodi- congrats- you are the top of the top for the Glass world in 2022!

 

Note I have been insanely lucky to have had Jodi, the FHC guys, and Chris on my podcast in the past and if you are looking for a listen this holiday season and want to know them better- here are the links.

Jodi and Dan Martinez 

Audio  Video 

Chris Hanstad and Barry Sutherland  FHC  

Audio  Video

Chris Phillips

Audio  Video

 

--  Quick side note- I survived with no internet for 3+ days and ladies and gentleman- I liked it!  Yes the disconnect really was refreshing.  Now will I do it again soon?  Probably not but I surely will welcome it when it comes down the line again. Who knew you could get away from things and survive!!

 

--  OK, so unless something crazy happens this will be my last blog for the year.  THANK YOU for following along and supporting.  My traffic in 2022 was by far my best, with numbers that blow my mind (that 40% glass increase that brought new people to my blog and podcast I think increased all of my traffic 40% too!) and I am grateful to everyone on this. Since 2005 I have posted this blog weekly and it continues to be a therapeutic joy for me, I hope to keep doing it and hope you all keep following along!

Finally, a sincere wish to all of you for a HAPPY and HEALTHY holiday season and 2023!  It’s going to be an interesting year (like seemingly all are) but I know our world can work through and over anything. I am honored to be amongst all of you.  Thank you.

 

See you with my next blog week of 1/8 with I’m sure plenty to catch up on!

 

LINKS of the WEEK

I think this fits the description of a frivolous lawsuit

 

I’m seriously glad I don’t ever run into any of these animal issues when I am in Florida

 

Dogs.  Love em!

 

PROJECT of the WEEK

This is a beauty and some of the names involved on it are real powerhouses… This is St. John's Terminal - 550 Washington- In Manhattan, NYC. Stunning right? The façade was fabricated by the folks at Intercom Facades via their NY operation.  Of course the glazier was the great team from W&W Glass working from a design via COOKFOX.  Kudos to Turner Construction too as the GC.  Congrats to all on a showstopping effort! 

Dynamic Duo and an Amazing System

We’ve reached the final month of the year and time has just flown right on by.  Lots to cover this week but kicking off with the latest From the Fabricator podcast.  Really fun one, first featuring the awesome duo of Michael Saroka and Laura Little from Goldray Glass.  This sibling team, along with their incredible company is making things happen in our space. They both dropped some strong insight too that I think we can all learn from.  Great people!  And also this month Kyle Lindersmith of innovative laminating system manufacturer Burkle.  He made a massive splash at the big GPAD event earlier this year and it was fun to catch up with him on that and his laminating machinery that is disrupting the space.  Loved his overall attitude as well. So please check this one out… as always I appreciate it!

To watch on YouTube

To listen you can click HERE or search “From the Fabricator” on Apple, Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts.

 

Elsewhere…

 

--  With the year coming to a close it is now officially Glass Industry MVP season!  So in 2 weeks, the winner will be announced and I have to say that once again there are so many awesome options here.  Choosing the winner and runners up yearly is a challenge but a good one really because that means we have people and companies that really care about what we do!  Just as a reminder, here are the past honorees:

2013- Tracy Rogers

2014- CR Laurence

2015- Jon Kimberlain

2016- Chuck Knickerbocker

2017- Joe Erb

2018- Nathalie Thibault

2019- Bill Sullivan

2020- Tim Kelley

2021- Matt Kamper and Steve Dean

2022- ?????

 

--  I posted this separately on LinkedIn but wanted to note it here in case you missed it.  My friend Vardhan Mehta of Acelab wrote a great post on architects and manufacturers and the dynamic there.  Our industry always wants to engage with architects and Vardhan being an excellent architect himself gave some answers to the test.  Check it out here!

--  Major congrats to Kevin Nash of Agnora on his retirement.  Kevin announced he was hanging em up on LinkedIn and it almost crashed the site.  Good guy who helped push some smart and sophisticated glass into the space and made our industry look good.  Congrats Kevin- best to you in the next phase of life and thanks for all you did in our world!

 

--  Fun one for my fellow road warriors… have you noticed both Hampton Inn and Holiday Inn are both going heavy on advertising their breakfast options.  I laugh because the commercials show these bright and shiny spaces, with loads of options, great looking food, happy and helpful people everywhere- even bringing you fresh tea!  My laughter comes because these images are pretty far from reality… and I love my Hampton Inns but the next time I get a breakfast like the ones they show on the commercial will be the first.  I will say now that things have progressed on the covid side of things, it is nice to even have that option back. (Those who missed it, during the height of covid, the breakfasts were discontinued, and they gave you a mystery bag that could include anything from an apple to a handful of fiber bars… you never knew and it was truly an adventure.)

 

--  Last this week… NO BLOG next week from me.  Yes I know I was already off very recently but that was Thanksgivings fault.  Next week I’ll be disconnected on a family cruise. This was booked in June of 2021 not knowing if cruises would even be happening, but here we are.  The bigger issue is me not being connected for 3+ days.  At this point I am choosing NOT to get the cruise Wifi.  I guess we’ll see how strong my willpower is!  Anyway, see you back in this space week of 12/18 with a special year end podcast and as mentioned above our industry MVP! Good stuff ahead….

 

LINKS of the WEEK

The mascot for the 2024 Olympics is out- I kinda like it. 

 

Crazy lucky no one was hurt and the broken glass a bit ugly too.

 

Interesting code addition here with residential fire sprinklers.  Not sure how I feel on it all.

 

PROJECT of the WEEK

This week we head to the Philly area where a few of my favorite glaziers are… one is Paul Rabinowitz Glass and I have always been a big fan of Mark Rabinowitz and his team there.  This project popped on to my feed and I LOVED the picture but also the caption- how about this:

 

“On site before the sun. When you work with RabGlass, you can always #ConsiderItDone.”

 

What an awesome line…Kudos to Mark and team on this project and please also would love to know who fabricated the glass and aluminum too.  Keep up the great work!

Index Down

Hope everyone in the US had a good Thanksgiving holiday.  The one area that did not was the Architectural Billings Index.  After months of waiting for the “other shoe to drop” and the index to be underwater, its latest reading limped in with an ugly 47.7 rating.  Remember 50 is the break-even mark and for close to 2 years we’ve been over it and in the last few months we’ve expected the drop and it finally happened.  Obviously, this now tracks with the predictions Connor Lokar made at GlassBuild looking at a negative turn in the commercial market for March of 2024. (Because of the runway from design to build)  There was a bit of good news in the monthly forecast though- new project inquiries stayed above the 50 mark- so the tires are still being kicked.  

Meanwhile there were a few other forecasts that happened in the last 2 weeks, and both were similar to what I’ve reported previously.  However, there were some interesting nuggets including:

·      When we do hit negative territory, that run is expected to be short.

·      Labor continues to be an issue (and will always be) but right now we are at the highest amount of construction job openings- ever.

·      New office construction is ugly.  The renovation side may help us but the new stuff is somewhat bleak.  Did you know the best year for office construction was 1985?  I am astounded by that.

·      Education looks strong- both on new and on the renovation side. 

So we’ll keep plugging along…

 

Elsewhere…

 

--  Very sad to hear about the passing of Joe Sennese of Vitro.  What a good guy.  I met Joe several years ago and he had this awesome enthusiasm for his work and for PPG/Vitro.  It was always a pleasure to run into him and I am truly bummed that will never happen again.  My thoughts and condolences are with Joe’s family, friends, and co-workers at Vitro.

 

--  Some exciting news with the big acquisition by Clover Architectural Products.  The great Tom O’Malley and company expanded their footprint with the addition of American Custom Metal.  Tom and the team have been on fire since day 1 there, and so exciting to see the growth continue!  Congrats to all on this awesome deal.

 

--  Also congrats to the latest Board of Directors at the National Glass Association.  Once again the board is made up of the best of the best in our world.  The rundown on who’s involved can be found HERE.  I have confidence that this group will continue the great work the NGA has going on and keep advancing us as an industry.  

 

--  Did you see you could have an opportunity to be at the United Nations for the closing ceremony of the International Year of Glass?  This is something very special and I am depressed I can’t be there, but if any of you can- especially those in the tri-state area- you should jump on.  For more information on how to gain access and more- click HERE.

 

--  Hotel design in 2022… fun piece here which I am sure a guy like David Corle is all over when it comes to the glass.  I like a lot of these enhancements and I will say every time I drive past “The Wave” in Florida it blows my mind. 

 

--  Last this week… new show I’m watching is “Tulsa King” with Sylvester Stallone.  For me it’s like Rocky plays a gangster and that alone because my love of “Rocky” makes me enjoy it.  Similar to watching “Your Honor” and seeing the same lead character (Bryan Cranston) from “Breaking Bad” and me thinking “Walter White as a judge” – anyway good stuff!

 

LINKS of the WEEK

Something tells me we’ll hear more on this kid some day- great story

 

Amazing story- guy sees cracks in a building, alerts officials, and they clear it before collapse!

 

The whole FTX saga continues to be amazing/riveting reads.  How so many smart and rich people could fall for this is unreal.  Meanwhile the Miami arena now needs a new name sponsor… “From the Fabricator Arena” anyone?  LOL 

 

PROJECT of the WEEK

From the LinkedIn feed of the legend Heather West and Heather West Public Relations comes this stunner from Washington University.  LEEDv4 Gold and WELL rated and it’s got the best of the best from some of the real heavy hitters in our space including Tubelite, Linetec, Viracon, and Wausau Widow.  Nice work everyone! 

Winding Down 2022

Down the stretch of 2022 we come.  These next 7 weeks will fly on by, so buckle in.  While usually some people start to coast to finish out the year, many others are grinding trying to get their plans for next year in line.  I suggest that hustle approach because you surely don’t want to be working from behind when the calendar changes.  Get the budget done, plan the marketing and communications, get those new product and material meetings on the books (and done if possible) and plan, plan, plan.  I think post-Covid our world has changed, more angles are fluid, and the standard approaches just don’t exist anymore.  And obviously there is time to decompress with the way the holidays are structured, but don’t go overboard or you’ll regret it!  

 

As for me on the blog/podcast.  I have 4 more blogs coming for the year including my annual Glass Industry MVP one.  I have 2 more podcasts, that if it all comes together (one is very much in flux still) will be exciting to do and to listen/watch.  Note- no blog next week leading into Thanksgiving.  I’ll be back in this space the week of 11/27.

 

Elsewhere….

 

--  In case you missed it- my current podcast is one with the awesome Lisa Lococo Smith of Kawneer and Jennifer Lang of Minneapolis Glass. Amazing talents those two!  Also, an apology I screwed up and called the wonderful Alicia Hamilton of NGA, Alicia Smith.  My brain really is mush most of the time.  So sorry Alicia and great work from you, Melanie Dettmer and the NGA team on the Women in Glass and Fenestration event.  Check out the podcast in your pre-holiday travels via VIDEO or AUDIO.  Thanks!

 

--  The Dodge Momentum Index continues to chug along and yet another nice month from it.  This is the index that is more “now” and from the general contracting side.  So we’ll take it.  There are soft spots out there still, but most are staying busy and positive, so let’s keep rolling.  NOTE- the next Architectural Billings Index drops early this month on 11/16- so because of the early release possibly it stays positive?  We will see and I’ll break it down on my next post.  In addition, two other forecasts are due to report out this week, so we’ll be monitoring those and reporting back later.

 

--  A big congrats to Coleman Jones at Pioneer Cladding and Glazing.  Coleman was named Chief Business Development Officer this past week and he’ll be awesome there.  He’s been a standard bearer at Pioneer for a long time and I am sure he’ll continue with the great success he’s always had.  My guy Paul Robinson there has just a dream team of folks on that squad.  Love it.  Congrats Coleman!

 

--  A couple of good resources out on the Inflation Reduction Act and how the investment tax credit works for dynamic and solar.  The fine folks at Ubiquitous Energy broke it down nicely in this post that includes some additional resources. On the dynamic side, SAGE Glass did a great job with a well thought out FAQ that features a bunch of links for more detail.  Good stuff from both and it seems like if people take advantage of this (and it is a big “if” since we’ve all been through previous stimulus and other tax credit plays that stalled out) it will be a positive for high performing specialty glass! 

 

--  I’m old.  And so this is a comical pet peeve.  But my kids will slam the door my jeep like they are trying to hold off an army or something.  These doors are lightweight- no need to slam.  I mean if you had to shut a door on a 77 Monte Carlo, you had to use all the muscle in your being to get that one shut- but now?  No major energy needed.  Anyway, had to get a “get off my lawn” rant out. 

 

--  Last this week- Thanksgiving is approaching and those who know me know it is my all-time favorite holiday.  And so with that- THANK YOU dear reader/listener/watcher/supporter.  I truly appreciate it.  It means so much to me that I can use this space as a weekly therapy and also share what is going on in our space.  No doubt blessed with great people in this industry and grateful that for 17 years now so many of you have followed me on this journey.  I wish only the best to you and yours and I hope everyone has a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday.

 

LINKS of the WEEK

I’m torn on the whole new twitter debate- it’s not any worse than it used to be, but no doubt the rollout of the $8 verified button went badly.  

 

Did a meteorite destroy this guys home?

 

Dogs are the best.  Another winning effort here

 

PROJECT of the WEEK

I have no idea who Allstate Glass is but this project appeared on my feed and l liked it!  This is a job somewhere in the Boston area from what I could tell from the post, and I loved the glass work and ribbon windows.  So nice work Allstate team and if anyone knows them- tell em to keep up the good work (and to also give credit to whomever supplied and fabricated the glass and metal too!!)

New Pod and the Deal Gets Done

Busy week in our world, so let’s get to it!

 

--  First off, a new podcast for you... the latest From the Fabricator episode has two people who aren’t usually in the spotlight in our industry but should be and are very interesting and cool!  I lead it off with Lisa Lococo Smith of Kawneer and her path to the industry is not what we are all used to but it works!  She brings some serious energy and presence to our space.  Then on to Jennifer Lang of Minneapolis Glass.  She is a very accomplished and brilliant player in our industry and a major leader and influencer.  She also breaks some big news about her company towards the end of our talk too which was incredible.  Overall, two awesome people for the great month of November.  Thanks for checking it out!

VIDEO

AUDIO or on Apple, Spotify etc.

 

--  Obviously, news of Trulite sale was a big one and folks THAT was the deal I had been waiting on for last few months.  I can’t tell you how many times I was told “it’s done, will be announced Friday” and it just never would happen.  Well, it finally happened, and it surely is an interesting one for all parties. First deal for the new company and new owners for Trulite for the first time in a long time… So within a year two of the biggest players in the fabricator side of things have changed hands. And I think there’s a few more adventures ahead M&A wise.  

 

--  A very good man is hanging it up.  Jerry Schwabauer of Azon is retiring.  Jerry has always been one of the nicest and most welcoming guys to me and to many others in our world and someone who has worked hard to improve energy performance through great innovation at Azon.  Our industry will absolutely miss him, and I will personally- great guy.  I will have him on my podcast before he gets too deep into his next phase of life!  Congrats Jerry!!

 

--  As I noted last week, I did sit in on an AIA forecast and it does connect a lot to the previous economic data we’ve heard including backlogs at architectural firms are strong and that 2023 should be positive in the commercial space.  Residential?  Look out.  And that includes the prediction that shower door installs will suffer as more and more homeowners tighten their belts thanks to inflation and interest rates slowing new builds.  Obviously, the shower door side is BIG in our space, so that’s a red flag to keep an eye out on.  There were a few other nuggets for commercial with the retrofit approach looking like it could weather a lot of storms, its numbers are strong and getting better and that forecast is close to hitting all-time best.  Bottom line as always though?  Stay focused on what you do, diversify those options, get more efficient and communicate.  That approach can overcome a ton.

 

--  I am soooo late to this but a great connection/follow on LinkedIn is Benji Bolick.  He is the “Door Dork” and his content is fabulous.  His Top Ten Fails of Doors in Vegas during GlassBuild was fantastic.  If you are on LinkedIn- see that post HERE and connect with him.  Sorry that I am like years behind on this stuff! 

 

--  Something to keep an eye on- the shortage of Diesel fuel is now starting to make news.  The shortages are more concentrated in a few areas of the US but if this grows this obviously affects our industry (and the entire economy) a great deal.  Most of our trucks, no matter where you are at in the chain run on Diesel.  Shortages and then the obvious price increase that comes with a supply chain crunch, will surely play a nasty role if this thing grows.  I am hoping maybe the fear here is either overdone or is addressed and improved on quickly.  But heads up none the less.

 

--  Last this week… Midterm election in the US and make sure you vote!  And if you are on the fence, the legendary Carl Christ of DFI, who in a past life was a serious music superstar did a Public Service Announcement on voting.  So if you need a boost, check out his post, watch that video and get to the polls.  Keep rocking Carl.. and slowly but surely I am going to get the whole story of “The Medflys” out to the masses!

 

LINKS of the WEEK

--  I love the chain store Wawa (Sheetz and Cumberland Farms in that category- all behind Buccee’s in the glass station/store/must stop rankings) but this promo went south…

 

--  Well at least this house had a ton of trick or treaters!  We surely did not have not for a while now.

 

--  Update on the Walleye competition controversy that I had on here a few weeks ago and we talked about on a previous podcast.

 

PROJECT of the WEEK

Country Glass is one of my favorites in the industry- great owners and team and have some of the best swag going (thank you for sharing some with me too!) – So this week’s spotlight on them- this is a small gig but looks great… glass and metal standing out nicely and I am sure once done the entire project is one for our world to be proud of.  Cheers to Brian Risinger, Joe Lambertson and everyone there who really do amazing things in our space and FOR our space.  Kudos!