Index Down

Hope everyone in the US had a good Thanksgiving holiday.  The one area that did not was the Architectural Billings Index.  After months of waiting for the “other shoe to drop” and the index to be underwater, its latest reading limped in with an ugly 47.7 rating.  Remember 50 is the break-even mark and for close to 2 years we’ve been over it and in the last few months we’ve expected the drop and it finally happened.  Obviously, this now tracks with the predictions Connor Lokar made at GlassBuild looking at a negative turn in the commercial market for March of 2024. (Because of the runway from design to build)  There was a bit of good news in the monthly forecast though- new project inquiries stayed above the 50 mark- so the tires are still being kicked.  

Meanwhile there were a few other forecasts that happened in the last 2 weeks, and both were similar to what I’ve reported previously.  However, there were some interesting nuggets including:

·      When we do hit negative territory, that run is expected to be short.

·      Labor continues to be an issue (and will always be) but right now we are at the highest amount of construction job openings- ever.

·      New office construction is ugly.  The renovation side may help us but the new stuff is somewhat bleak.  Did you know the best year for office construction was 1985?  I am astounded by that.

·      Education looks strong- both on new and on the renovation side. 

So we’ll keep plugging along…

 

Elsewhere…

 

--  Very sad to hear about the passing of Joe Sennese of Vitro.  What a good guy.  I met Joe several years ago and he had this awesome enthusiasm for his work and for PPG/Vitro.  It was always a pleasure to run into him and I am truly bummed that will never happen again.  My thoughts and condolences are with Joe’s family, friends, and co-workers at Vitro.

 

--  Some exciting news with the big acquisition by Clover Architectural Products.  The great Tom O’Malley and company expanded their footprint with the addition of American Custom Metal.  Tom and the team have been on fire since day 1 there, and so exciting to see the growth continue!  Congrats to all on this awesome deal.

 

--  Also congrats to the latest Board of Directors at the National Glass Association.  Once again the board is made up of the best of the best in our world.  The rundown on who’s involved can be found HERE.  I have confidence that this group will continue the great work the NGA has going on and keep advancing us as an industry.  

 

--  Did you see you could have an opportunity to be at the United Nations for the closing ceremony of the International Year of Glass?  This is something very special and I am depressed I can’t be there, but if any of you can- especially those in the tri-state area- you should jump on.  For more information on how to gain access and more- click HERE.

 

--  Hotel design in 2022… fun piece here which I am sure a guy like David Corle is all over when it comes to the glass.  I like a lot of these enhancements and I will say every time I drive past “The Wave” in Florida it blows my mind. 

 

--  Last this week… new show I’m watching is “Tulsa King” with Sylvester Stallone.  For me it’s like Rocky plays a gangster and that alone because my love of “Rocky” makes me enjoy it.  Similar to watching “Your Honor” and seeing the same lead character (Bryan Cranston) from “Breaking Bad” and me thinking “Walter White as a judge” – anyway good stuff!

 

LINKS of the WEEK

Something tells me we’ll hear more on this kid some day- great story

 

Amazing story- guy sees cracks in a building, alerts officials, and they clear it before collapse!

 

The whole FTX saga continues to be amazing/riveting reads.  How so many smart and rich people could fall for this is unreal.  Meanwhile the Miami arena now needs a new name sponsor… “From the Fabricator Arena” anyone?  LOL 

 

PROJECT of the WEEK

From the LinkedIn feed of the legend Heather West and Heather West Public Relations comes this stunner from Washington University.  LEEDv4 Gold and WELL rated and it’s got the best of the best from some of the real heavy hitters in our space including Tubelite, Linetec, Viracon, and Wausau Widow.  Nice work everyone!