The Glass Conference

I’ve noted this previously but here goes again… there’s a ton of content out there right now and it’s a challenge to determine what is worthy and what is not.  One event that is absolutely worth it- even more than ever this year- is the Glass Conference coming in July.  This is a conference that I was not always able to get to in person but always enjoyed.  This year it had to go virtual and I am blown away by the level of information lined up for it.  There is insight on design, manufacturing, jobsites, products and more.  It’s an incredible agenda.  So I’m pretty pumped about it.  The link with the schedule can be found HERE and I think it’s going to be an excellent opportunity to learn and grow.  Register now and let’s make it a great one.

Elsewhere…

--  I was on the latest ITR economic outlook webinar (and a note ITR will have an analyst on the Glass Conference as well) and it was an interesting roller coaster ride of detail and information.  Some of the highlights were that this situation we are in as we know has no historical benchmark.  And seeing it in graphs really sent this point home for me.  When you say “uncharted” this is it.  So trying to use the past as a guide is not really at play.  So what is at work is that we’ve got a solid backlog on the commercial side that is going to carry some weight through 2020 but 2021 is looking very murky.   We know that plenty of projects are on the shelf right now- we don’t know how many are just delayed vs. outright canceled.  That detail will start to become clearer by 3Q and then more accurate reporting will happen.  Bottom line though is now is the time to keep on top of everything and also time to keep laser focused on how you are operating and diversifying for the future. 

--  Speaking of forecasts the 2020 Hurricane season forecast is out and it looks like there are some potential adventures ahead.  Obviously hurricane season is always stressful but my goodness this year could add a crazy layer to it.  Hopefully Mother Nature will take it easy on us.

--  Missed commenting on this but was great to see Jeremy Hoy land at Virginia Glass Products.  Jeremy is a major talent and a part of what I would say the next generation of big time players in our industry.  Only thing he doesn’t do is read my blog so I’ll have to work on him there.  Congrats to him and the folks at Virginia- good combo.

--  The AIA Committee on the Environment had their top 10 projects of the year released this past week and while some of these are not my taste a couple jumped out.  All are good for the world though and worth taking a look.  Congrats to any glass and glazing folks who had work on one of these!

--  Are you ready for Augmented Reality (AR) Glasses?  Well supposedly Apple is close- I assume these would be the next more intense generation beyond “Google Glass” that were out a few years ago.  If I had to guess, I would say Thomas Lee of Lee & Cates and Flat Glass Distributors probably has a new pair of these Apple AR Glasses already since he’s always ahead of the tech- so maybe he’ll share if they are good or not!

--  Last this week… no blog post from me next week.  I am going to take a few mental health days at the end of this week and into start of next.  I am going to actually attempt to go totally offline.  Seriously.  So that means no streaming TV either… going dark, got a few books to finish and want to avoid all social media especially.  We’ll see how long that lasts but the effort will be there.  I’ll be back in this space week of June 14^th!  Stay well everyone!

LINKS of the WEEK

--  How about this for a late delivery… 8 years late!

--  Man this was a huge “oops”

--  13 year old graduates COLLEGE.. my friend who shared this with me noted what about the social ramifications here?  The Doogie Howser thing may be cute but in today’s world?  No way for me.

PROJECT of the WEEK

This week from LW Facades out of Colorado.  I don’t know a thing about these folks- saw this come across on my LinkedIn feed and liked that it was a remodel/retrofit job.  According to their post this is the East Village new curtain wall and entrances. Curtain wall by Kawneer and glass from OldcastleBuilding Envelope and Vitro Architectural Glass.  Good, simple, clean project and upgrade to the front of the building (and I assume rest of building ill probably follow) with products that absolutely perform better than what was there previous.  Congrats to all involved!

Being Ready

Finally the weather in Michigan is allowing me to get out and run more comfortably and when I do that I always have to have music.  I like tons of different styles and I just set it on shuffle and go.  One song, and a bit of its lyrics hit me this week as something I should share here.  The song is called “Ready” by Raphael Lake.  The lyrics that moved me:

“Ready
I don't get ready i stay ready
'Cause the consequences is heavy”

What have I been preaching throughout our latest world event? Being strategic and staying ahead of the curve.  But these lines actually say more and say it better.  So many times I hear “well as soon as things change we’ll push more, we’ll go then” and that attitude is chasing the wave vs. being on top of it.  The play should be: Ready.  Stay Ready.  And what are the consequences of not being ready?  Well that would be competition that is strategic and moving, leaving you behind.  I have been lucky to have clients right now that get it but obviously I’d like more and more of our industry to get it too… so if you are not “ready” yet get there because like the song says “the consequences is heavy…”

Elsewhere…

--  The Architectural Billings Index was released for April and as expected it was down, but the drop from March was actually not that bad- especially on the new project inquiries and contracts.  They both stayed relatively flat with inquiries going up slightly.  So I was a little stunned when news reports had those specific areas as “significant drops.”  Unless I am missing something these parts of the index were surely not even drops let alone “significant.”  Now I know no one is happy with terrible numbers but we also need to keep our heads about us.  This is what it is- and it can be much worse.  I’m still amazed that any new work is being booked given the crisis and overall narrative out in the world these days.  By the way the overall ABI dropped from 33.3 to 29.5- historic lows for sure but I still say it can be worse and I really expected worse.  

--  This article on a drop in prices and stabilization is probably not great news overall but it surely is another “is what it is” point.

--  Interesting to see that the big “C-Suite” job of the future is now “Chief Safety Officer.”  For many of us the role of safety has always been a major play and now if this virus allows a focused position at a higher level to focus on all safety (just not the virus) than that’s great.  And I know that most high-end HR professionals would fit this role, but I also like the focus of this being soley on the safety aspect of things. No payroll, no hiring etc.

--  I wrote above about “stay ready” and great example of that is Daubmann family with My Shower Door and D3 Glass.   Their drive showed true again with the word of another My Shower Door location in Cape Coral, Florida.  They have been consistently moving and not letting anything stop them.  Congrats to Bill and entire team there and as soon as this world returns to normal, I am going to check out the new operation!

--  Last week I broke down some excellent LinkedIn follows… this week I am on the Twitter side.  Now in reality Twitter is a cesspool with so much awfulness everywhere.  But there is some value in business and operations side and you just have to know where to look.  Here’s a few follows that will help you get there and I am sure I have noted a few of these before but value still holds!

John Wheaton @JohnLWheaton1  - Mix of positivity and insight always

Construction Dive @constructdive – Constant updates and stories from the construction world

Dustin Anderson @Dustin_And3rson– Projects, processes, opinions, and fun stuff.  I like it and it’s a welcome diversion from day to day stuff

NGA News- @glassnation Same as last week’s note, if you want to stay up to speed (or like the theme of this blog “stay ready’) then this is a must follow

Kai Uwe Bergmann @kaiuwebergmann – Big time architect with a big time feed

I am sure I am missing some good ones; so feel free to let me know!

--  Last this week- it probably doesn’t feel much like a holiday week, but it is Memorial Day and week in the US and I hope everyone can find some time to turn their thoughts to the men and women who served in the armed forces and gave the ultimate sacrifice. 

LINKS of the WEEK

--  Sometimes you just have to read a headline to get a chuckle.

--  Really cool look back at the Mt St. Helens eruption 40 years ago

--  This video went viral this week- elevators and glass are a bad mix and this one was crazy to watch!

HOLIDAY WEEK BONUS

If you were at glasstec in 2018 you saw this technology from a different group.  Interesting to see it portrayed this way.

PROJECT of the WEEK

O-H-I-O University in the house this week with project spotlight.  Ohio is my alma mater and imagine how pumped I was to see a nice project in process thanks to the Blakley’s feed on LinkedIn.  This project is the Clippinger Labs building- so since it was science related I never went close to that area when I was school- but in any case this looks like a nice project for sure… Blakley’s doing the install and GC is Gilbane… who’s glass and aluminum?  Anyone want to step up and take credit?  Congrats to all involved and thanks for making my alma mater look fabulous with this project!

Quick Hits

Different format this week… quick hits as I clear off the desktop…

--  The Dodge Momentum Index was only slightly down in its latest reading for May.  But before we get too positive, this report is a 3-month moving average and so expectations are that this index will see some serious drops in the next month or two.  It bears watching for sure.

--  Also watching this week as the latest Architectural Billings Index comes out. Will it drop further (absolutely) and what will the new project inquiry side look like?  I’ll break it all down on next week’s post.

--  Thirsty Thursday Webinar (May 21) is a big one for many in the glass industry.  This week will feature the most current updates and changes impacting glass railing in the International Building Code (IBC).  If you play in this world- and so many fabricators & glaziers do- CLICK here and get registered.

--  Once upon a time I had the honor of presenting at Garibaldi Glass Day.  This event always attracts the best of the best in the Pacific Northwest and attendees and speakers always come away with a greater knowledge base.  Unfortunately like so much else these days, the 2020 version of Glass Day was cancelled.  But the team there did put together this video to give us all that walk through the past and continue to provide hope that eventually we will be on the other side of this.  Classy work here by the Mobius family and entire team at Garibaldi.

--  I’m not going to Dusseldorf this year but those of you who are- you gotta check out this structure… Europe’s largest green façade.  I can’t even fathom how it works and how it can be maintained.  Sorry I’ll stick with glass and glazing every day of the week.

--  I’m a big fan of Kevin Haynes of Tubelite and he has a pretty deep look at high performance curtain walls in educational facilities that recently got published.  Good read here and nice work Kevin!

--  I really liked this Chris Kammers blog on digital marketing.  Right now the companies that are being strategic are positioning better than their competition.  Chris’ piece gives a good taste on one avenue to follow.

--  Last this week… So with everyone limited to no face-to-face interaction we are all online more.  What are some “under the radar” follows worth your time with social media?  This week I’ll do LinkedIn and next week I’ll do Twitter.   On LinkedIn these are groups/companies that are posting interesting, helpful, and sometimes fun content:

National Glass Association- Maybe not “under the radar” but if you’re not following you are not staying on top of your industry and latest happenings and updates

FeneTech- They mix fun and information perfectly in my opinion.  Perfect.

Kovach and Momentum Glass- Good look at projects and process

United Architectural Metals- I am a fan of the team there and projects they do, plus they’ll share an interesting read as well

Linetec- May be one of the best all around feeds in existence- creative and smart. Love their approach!

Super Sky- Classic brand, enjoying seeing project and representative profiles.  Reps often get no love or respect so it’s nice to see a company recognize them.

Obviously there’s tons of major players and companies I did not mention that hopefully you are following already- if not and you need some ideas, ping me and I’ll gladly share and you please do the same!

LINKS of the WEEK

--  Long but good read on the hacker that “saved” the internet

--  More proof dogs are the best pets…

--  No great words to tease this one outside of “man chases down wine truck and drinks from it.”  Is that enough?  Wow.

PROJECT of the WEEK

This week features some serious industry heavy hitters on a project that had job photos below that blew me away.  This is the Edwards Lifesciences project that is being glazed by Bagatelos Architectural Glass using product from Viracon.  When I saw this come up on my LinkedIn feed (from the always great Cameron Scripture) I immediately saved the post because I knew this was a project I wanted to share.  Flat beautiful glass, expertly fabricated and installed.   But then add the extra oomph of the ability to snap pictures like this only makes our product and industry look that much better!  Congrats to all involved!

Forecast Updates

I’ve been trying to steer clear of a lot of virus related material but unfortunately this week I have a bunch.  Hopefully next post I can get back to more topics that can allow you to think on something else! 

I sat in on the ConstructConnect webinar this week that was an update to bring folks up to speed on the current construction forecast landscape.  As you could imagine it was pretty rough but as always I found a positive or two.   Starting though on the bad side… the revised AIA consensus forecast has us now down 11% for the year on non residential and 14% down on commercial.  The areas that are struggling are what you would expect- Retail, Hotels, and Office.  All will surely go through some re-imagining (see more on my thoughts on the future below).  Areas of hope are also somewhat obvious- health care, education and public safety. The long-range non-residential forecast is being predicted to not get back to 2019 levels until 2024.  (I wanted to throw up when I saw that)

Now the “positive news” because I have to try and be hopeful right? There’s evidence of a moderate uptick in new projects hitting the streets.  That goes in hand with what we were seeing with the new project inquiries on the ABI.  

Obviously everything is very fluid right now and things can and do change but this report surely was ugly. Also this is really uncharted stuff, so there’s no playbook for this analysis- it could be right or could be wrong- we don’t have any historical base to work from.  There’s another big webinar coming up on the 26^th so we’ll take that one in and report back then.  Bottom line?  We all have to keep being strategic, diverse (design and code changes WILL help glass), and active in fighting & marketing for our businesses and world. 

Elsewhere…

--  One of the questions I get asked the most is how do I see how things are progressing at the Architect level.  Personally I am hearing a mixed bag- smaller firms struggling but bigger ones really rolling still.  But like everything right now things are changing constantly.  This article gives a deeper dive into what’s going on at that level and worth continuing to follow.

--  A lot of articles this past week on what the office of the “future” will look like and I still am holding strong that glass will be playing a major role.  The underlying theme in all of the pieces I read was that people need to have separation but don’t want to be “boxed” in.  So there it is again… we all know that glass can allow that more open feeling but still offer the protection the stakeholders right now desire.  Pre-pandemic growth on the interior was a point I was very confident about- and now as we continue down this path I feel even stronger.  Especially seeing how glass partitions are popping up everywhere retail wise, just a matter of time before that office push comes together. 

--  Not that we don’t have enough to think about right now- but then there’s this. What happens to the availability of the public bathroom in our new normal?  Those of us who are on the road a lot had a routine and knew where to stop etc.  Another thing that changes…

--  Last this week… once again I am using this space to remember someone who passed and this one is someone who hit very close to home.  Bobby Silverstein passed away last weekend and I have spent the entire week trying to come up with words to do Bobby’s life proper justice.  I don’t think I can give him the honoring he deserves but I am going to try.  Bobby was a winner and a fighter.  He took massive chances including starting Arch Aluminum during a brutal economy when he could’ve just taken the easy path and stayed where he was.  But like everything he did, Bobby made the decisions to move forward and never look back.  He stressed service above all and created a foundation and business model that most of the industry now utilizes. 

Before I started working for Bobby and his family I was told Bobby could relate to anyone.  This was very true; he had that nature about him that allowed it.  Writing this made me think about the story of when Bobby was in Las Vegas and he ended up in a conversation, a very friendly one, with Snoop Dog- the big time rap superstar.  They got along well- the older Jewish glass man and young hip hop icon.  And that was par for the course for Bobby- he could relate.  It was those traits that had his employee base always ready to run through a wall for him too. When it came to me, Bobby knew how to tweak me and keep me on my toes and was an incredible supporter of mine from day 1… even though he really did not like marketing…

Back in the early 2000’s the company honored Bobby at a sales meeting.  A video was created showing his life and accomplishments in pictures and set to music.  The song was “My Way” and it was absolutely perfect.  Bobby always did it his way and did it right.  He was way ahead of his time on so many levels and I am thankful I got to work for him and learn some things along the way.    My sincerest condolences to Bobby’s family and friends.  This is an incredible loss of a great man, father, grandfather, and leader.  He will be dearly missed. 

LINKS of the WEEK

How do you do this?  Seems impossible to do this with a car.

I know some found this story cute- but I think it’s disturbing that people want to reward this behavior.  Both for the kid and the example it sets.

I mean this feels like fake news.  Like something from the Onion or Babylon Bee.  Your urine as concrete?

PROJECT of the WEEK

We go to the great state of Minnesota and project I stumbled upon from the fine folks at Heartland Glass.  This is St. Cloud Airport and I just love the clean design and how the glass and glazing just pop.  I don’t know any of the particulars here like suppliers or architects- but kudos to all on some great work!

What the Recent Index Means

Last week I had comments on the record-breaking drop in the Architectural Billings Index (ABI) and afterward I was asked about what that all really means.  So I wanted to take a minute here to break it down.  The ABI is far from a guaranteed indicator of business but it is also one of the only things we have that can be tracked- so we have always rolled with it.  For the most part its in the ballpark with its accuracy.  How the ABI affects our industry is when the work actually hits us- which can be 9-12+ months away from when it’s in the billings index.  So the awful drop?  We would “feel” that towards the end of this year and into early 2021. This jives with the feeling we have out there of a burst of business/backlog for us and then a drop. The ABI is predicting our drop.  Obviously a heavier backlog and also scheduling and logistics gymnastics could cover up or minimize that drop but the longer this issue goes on, the bigger chance we get touched by it.  And again the fact that there are ANY new project inquiries during the greatest crux of this crisis is something to look positively at.  Next release is May 20^thand we’ll see what that brings…

Elsewhere…

--  Also if the ABI continues to scuffle- and we expect it will- the angle of strategy and diversification take much bigger roles.  If you are not looking hard at what you can do to be ahead of the game right now, you are missing out.

--  The one thing that is happening right now is there is A LOT of content being offered.  As folks got settled in the “work from home” stage, more and more webinars and podcasts popped up.  Many more opportunities to learn.  Which now has that area saturated.  The key now is determining which pieces are legitimate learning opportunities vs. promo play.  It is a tough one for all involved.  Companies NEED to be promoting and we all SHOULD be trying to learn but threading that needle with regards to time and quality has come in to play.

--  Great work released this week from the NGA Forming Committee and its Building Compliance FAQ’s.  Well done document with excellent and important detail.  Kudos to all of the volunteers on that committee who got it done.  Great stuff!!

--  Book alert for you- “Unraveling the Mystery of M&A Integration and Divestiture Success” by Al Ansari.  I had the honor of working with Al in a past life and he’s a brilliant guy.  Had no idea he had a book in him!  Anyway this one is big especially given the amount of M&A that may come down the line thanks to adventures we are living in now. So if you are interested in a great dive in to the world of acquisitions and so on- go ahead and buy this book. 

--  Got this one from the always-interesting tweet stream of Thomas Lee.  Its how fast glass can break and it’s a wild well-done video.  Viewed over 12 million times!

--  Last this week… I am actually on the road.  Because of some adventures that needed taken care of in South Carolina for my daughter- we had to fly out on Friday and start a journey during this really wild time. So thoughts… first- the airports were stunningly quiet and it had that feel of when you would arrive at 1AM after a lot of delays and no one was around… except this was prime morning flying time and the airports were ghost towns.  In Detroit there’s normally 3 full security lines and 1 only for TSA.  Now there is only 1 open line for all- and 1 officer checking ID’s- one per minute.  That was to keep distancing.  So with only 20 people in line it still took 20+ minutes.  Inside airport I’d say 50/50 on mask usage.  I know this week more airlines are demanding it and I found it fascinating how many folks were not wearing one.  On Delta, loading of plane now goes from back to front- and that includes the medallion flyers- so if you are Diamond etc.- you are waiting until the end to load.  One the plane itself- no middle seats are booked along with random rows.  Plane was spotless.  It seriously looked and smelled brand new.  When you walked on the flight attendants’ hand you a bag with water and a snack.  There was a small hand sanitizer in there too.  The flight was uneventful- the Flight Attendants were active in making sure they were grabbing any of your garbage and you were not putting  it into the seat back cover. In South Carolina I joked that the pandemic is not really here- it has been completely opposite of Michigan. Maybe it’s the weather or the southern attitude but I can feel a difference by a lot.  In any case it’s going to be an interesting road ahead travel wise- as we hopefully move towards normalcy- the business travel adventures will surely be a lot different than we all have been used to!

LINKS of the WEEK

You know how I have been following the celebrity college admissions scandal- interesting update here

My friend who sent this to me summed this story up perfectly… “It’s like they didn’t even try” my gosh awful lazy marketing

Another story on another insane collection… wow

PROJECT of the WEEK

In this section I show mostly glass projects- after all I live and love that product.  However as you all know our industry is so much more than that.  We are what makes the building envelope shine.  We also add the touches that make massive differences on the projects themselves. So this week, the Project focus goes to the gang at Clover Architectural Products.  I stumbled on to this Harper College job that features vertical fins in 4 different colors and it looks awesome.  I just like the way this attachment just added a whole new style to the building.  Nice design work by Canon and install by Lake Shore Glass and Metal.  Kudos to Tom O’Malley and team for this job and so many others that they are doing- great stuff!!  (And I know Tom and Clover have done so many monumental jobs, he's probably going to kill me for showing one of the smallest ones they have done- but its sharp!!)